Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
About margin trading, I know one of the major price spikes (down) on Obama was caused by a major liquidation from a margin trader that I know of. This person dealt with a 5-digit account.
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Paul Hewitt on Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.Paul Hewitt on Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions
David Pennock on Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictionsPaul Hewitt on Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions
Chris F. Masse on In light of the upcoming “bursting” of the Cantor Exchange, Max Keiser have regrets about creating the Hollywood Stock Exchange.Chris F. Masse on Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions
Jason Ruspini on In light of the upcoming “bursting” of the Cantor Exchange, Max Keiser have regrets about creating the Hollywood Stock Exchange.Paul Hewitt on Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions
Martin Frindt on “Trading is a game —and we do the forecast!”
Niall O'Connor on Smarkets want you to believe that they are going after a much bigger betting market than BetFair’s one.
This article on The Atlantic about bubbles seems relevant to this blog http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/financial-bubbles
Hardly groundbreaking stuff IMO, but maybe I missed it. Greed combined with security, more importantly a false sense of security, causes bubbles. But there’s a lot proper regulation can do to prevent them. We’re animals, cattle to some. Prey species are extremely vigilant, so you have to sneak up on them. Betfair understand all this, talk to them.
Goldman Sachs predicted oil to touch $200 per barrel in very near future.
I’m on record for criticizing them when oil was heading towards $147, saying we were well into the blow-off stage.
The latest prediction has come from analysts at Merrill Lynch, who have given a target of $25 per barrel.
http://www.labnol.org/india/markets/tale-of-two-investment-banks-their-predictions-on-oil/5865/
In a Vanity Fair article, “Wall Street Lays Another Egg,” Harvard financial historian Niall Ferguson teases his new book, “The Ascent of Money:” “When our “animal spirits flip from greed to fear, the bubble that [our] earlier euphoria inflated can burst with amazing suddenness … markets are mirrors of the human psyche.
10 clues: A new bubble is blowing
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Ten-clues-tell-us-a/story.aspx?guid=%7B46BEE66B%2D29D6%2D4799%2D88F8%2DC6FBAD94AFAB%7D&dist=SecMostRead