Comments on: Are prediction markets useful to you? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/02/prediction-markets-polls-experts/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/02/prediction-markets-polls-experts/#comment-23392 Chris F. Masse Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:39:42 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11935#comment-23392 The truth about prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/14/the-truth-about-prediction-markets/ The truth about prediction markets
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/14/the-truth-about-prediction-markets/

]]> By: Who needs Robin Hanson’s Policy Analysis Market when we have plain, classic, old-fashioned, market-free intelligence reports leaked to the mass media by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism? | M http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/02/prediction-markets-polls-experts/#comment-22972 Who needs Robin Hanson’s Policy Analysis Market when we have plain, classic, old-fashioned, market-free intelligence reports leaked to the mass media by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism? | M Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:14:54 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11935#comment-22972 [...] Any prediction market on the likelihood of terrorist acts perpetrated on US cities would simply aggregate this kind of information, which terrorism experts and journalists are already aware of (since they can read). –> Low social utility. [...] [...] Any prediction market on the likelihood of terrorist acts perpetrated on US cities would simply aggregate this kind of information, which terrorism experts and journalists are already aware of (since they can read). –> Low social utility. [...]

]]> By: Nigel Eccles http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/02/prediction-markets-polls-experts/#comment-22971 Nigel Eccles Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:15:38 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11935#comment-22971 I tend to agree. However there is an interesting analysis on whether markets follow polls here: http://flowingdata.com/2008/10/22/who%E2%80%99s-leading-whom-predictive-markets-versus-polls/ (Spoiler alert: it shows the markets leading polls) I tend to agree. However there is an interesting analysis on whether markets follow polls here: http://flowingdata.com/2008/10/22/who%E2%80%99s-leading-whom-predictive-markets-versus-polls/

(Spoiler alert: it shows the markets leading polls)

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