It’s “pretty clear” that the prediction markets on political elections aggregate information from the polls —and from the political experts.

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Previously: #1 – #2 – #3 – #4 – #5 – #6

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It’s “pretty clear” that:

1. InTrade has been over-selling the predicting power of its prediction markets.
2. The prediction markets are information aggregation systems —not magical tools.
3. The main benefit of a prediction market is to express an aggregated expected probability. Most of the times, this is of low utility.
4. In complicated situations, this aggregation will contrast well with a poor reporting. In these instances, the prediction market is a useful source of information.

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