It’-s “-pretty clear”- that the prediction markets on political elections aggregate information from the polls —-and from the political experts.
Previously: #1 – #2 – #3 – #4 – #5 – #6
It’-s “-pretty clear”- that:
- InTrade has been over-selling the predicting power of its prediction markets.
- The prediction markets are information aggregation systems —-not magical tools.
- The main benefit of a prediction market is to express an aggregated expected probability. Most of the times, this is of low utility.
- In complicated situations, this aggregation will contrast well with a poor reporting. In these instances, the prediction market is a useful source of information.