Yet another person outraged by the HubDub prediction markets on deaths and assassinations

8 Responses to Yet another person outraged by the HubDub prediction markets on deaths and assassinations

1. Medemi says:

   November 27, 2008 at 3:58 AM

   “I strongly believe that HubDub should delete this awful prediction market.”

   I can’t comment on that page. I have to log in again, and when I do it says “invalid username”
   I also believe it (and its comments) doesn’t show in Google reader.

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2. Medemi says:

   November 27, 2008 at 4:03 PM

   I will just have to post it here then.
    
   Nigel,
    
   I believe you have to make a distinction between people dieing of old age or some disease, and assassinations. The former can’t easily be prevented while the latter is in the public interest, it concerns us all. When the price of a possible assassination reaches “critical” levels in the public’s eye then that’s a signal we want to send out. There will always be people who are offended by some market but in this case I believe openness overrules matters of privacy.
   When you’re offering markets on people dieing of some disease OTOH, it is more of a private matter, and you will find that people will turn against you. Rightfully so, IMO.
    
   HubDub should have offered that market before Obama was elected though, as I’ve pointed out earlier. Makes it less personal.
    
   As for letting your customer base decide, this is not a bloody democracy, I hope. People have the capacity of ruining everything.

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3. Medemi says:

   November 27, 2008 at 4:38 PM

   Pim Fortuyn was assassinated on May 6 as he was leaving a radio studio in the city of Hilversum.
   He had been expected to win the forthcoming elections on May 15. He had expressed radical views on
   subjects such as Islam, immigration, and the state of confusion the out-going Kok government had left
   behind. Due to his opinions and debating talents, he had attracted both left- and right-wing voters. A
   controversial personality, Fortuyn had also received threatening letters, bomb threats and a barrage of

   verbal assaults by e-mail.

    

   2 The assassination suspect was arrested on the same day as the killing and in
   November he confessed to the crime, saying that “he was concerned about Fortuyn’s generally
   stigmatizing political conceptions, which would have adverse consequences for certain vulnerable
   groups in society.”3
   Pim Fortuyn did not receive protection from the authorities. On the day of the murder, he was
   accompanied by a private personal bodyguard, who, however, could not prevent the murder. The Kok

   government set up an independent committee

    

   - the Van den Haak Committee – to investigate the
   matter. The committee published its report in December

    

   4 into the security situation prior to the murder,
   the activities of the governmental institutions concerned and whether Fortuyn had requested
   protection. The report concluded that Fortuyn should have been provided with protection and
   criticized the failure of the Justice and Interior Ministers to do so. According to the committee, the
   General Intelligence and Security Service had also failed in its activities because it had not carried out
   a proper security analysis, despite a request from the Minister of the Interior that it do so. The minister
   himself had assumed that the Security Service would investigate the case thoroughly and believed its
   statement that there had been no threats against Fortuyn. In addition, Fortuyn himself had disliked the
   idea of protection because he had felt it would limit his personal freedom.

   http://www.ihf-hr.org/viewbinary/viewdocument.php?doc_id=2260
   ——-

   That last line is not entirely correct. Fortuyn demanded protection from the Government, repeatedly. He did not get it, despite the fact that I felt his life could be in danger, despite the fact (IMO) that the public felt his life could be at risk. 

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4. Chris F. Masse says:

   November 28, 2008 at 9:43 AM

   “I can’t comment on that page.”
   -
   You have to create an account there.
   -

   “I also believe it (and its comments) doesn’t show in Google reader.”
   They do.
   -

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5. Chris F. Masse says:

   November 28, 2008 at 9:45 AM

   “When the price of a possible assassination reaches “critical” levels in the public’s eye then that’s a signal we want to send out.”
   -
   The problem is that there won’t be insider knowledge informing the markets.
   -

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6. Chris F. Masse says:

   November 28, 2008 at 9:47 AM

   Pim Fortuyn
   -
   Are you telling us that an assassination prediction market would have been useful in that case?
   You might be half right. Interesting.

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7. Medemi says:

   November 28, 2008 at 11:41 AM

   Yes. I am half right. It is interesting.
    
   Fortuyn was a special case. Many loved him, many were offended by his remarks. I was in the first camp and it still hurts today when I think about what happened, back then in 2002. Democracy died that day, for many, in the Netherlands. People took to the streets, but sadness and rationality overcame feelings of hate and revenge, and prevented a revolt.
    
   The ruling political parties saw him as a threat and were relentless in demonizing him. The media, by and large, went along with that and made him look like a racist. There were many regrets, afterwards…
    
   One of Fortuyn’s last words were (translated) “Should anything happen to me, YOU will be held responsible”, pointing to the media and the Government for creating a climate that, let’s just say, didn’t improve his life expectancy.
    
   There are many examples throughout history where someone with the ability to steal people’s hearts “has to go”. Obama, albeit a different situation, could fall into that category. Well, most of us don’t really know him, yet.
    
   I think you made a fair judgement, Chris.

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