Comments on: “The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.” http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/24/364-votes-in-the-electoral-college/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Sat, 20 Mar 2010 22:30:41 -0400 hourly 1 By: Are prediction markets useful to you? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/24/364-votes-in-the-electoral-college/#comment-22964 Are prediction markets useful to you? | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:25:34 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11696#comment-22964 [...] #1 - #2 - #3 - #4 - #5 - [...] [...] #1 – #2 – #3 – #4 – #5 – [...]

]]> By: Are prediction markets useful? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/24/364-votes-in-the-electoral-college/#comment-22930 Are prediction markets useful? | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:55:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11696#comment-22930 [...] #1 - #2 - #3 - #4 - [...] [...] #1 – #2 – #3 – #4 – [...]

]]> By: “Still, as noted, it was a good election for prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundits (and at least parity with the poll).” | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/24/364-votes-in-the-electoral-college/#comment-22916 “Still, as noted, it was a good election for prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundits (and at least parity with the poll).” | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 25 Nov 2008 16:39:42 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11696#comment-22916 [...] John Tierney linked to that Huffington Post that listed the pundits’ predictions about the total number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate would take. But I disagree with that way of predicting the electoral college and assessing these predictions. With this completely flawed method, if you are damn wrong on a state and damn wrong (in the opposite way) about another state that has the exact same number of electoral votes, then you are a bright genius worth the Nobel prize of forecasting. Gimme a break. Enough with that voodoo way of assessing predictions about the electoral college. Do the assessment state by state. [...] [...] John Tierney linked to that Huffington Post that listed the pundits’ predictions about the total number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate would take. But I disagree with that way of predicting the electoral college and assessing these predictions. With this completely flawed method, if you are damn wrong on a state and damn wrong (in the opposite way) about another state that has the exact same number of electoral votes, then you are a bright genius worth the Nobel prize of forecasting. Gimme a break. Enough with that voodoo way of assessing predictions about the electoral college. Do the assessment state by state. [...]

]]> By: John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/24/364-votes-in-the-electoral-college/#comment-22904 John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets. | Midas Oracle .ORG Mon, 24 Nov 2008 21:28:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11696#comment-22904 [...] Previously [...] [...] Previously [...]

]]> By: ElectoralMap.net has been over-selling InTrade’s predictive power to the public —as John Tierney’s just done. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/24/364-votes-in-the-electoral-college/#comment-22903 ElectoralMap.net has been over-selling InTrade’s predictive power to the public —as John Tierney’s just done. | Midas Oracle .ORG Mon, 24 Nov 2008 21:07:41 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11696#comment-22903 [...] They don’t tell the public that InTrade has just aggregated the state polls, which were quite accurate —giving a little plus to Obama in Missouri, where the polls were saying that “Missouri [...] [...] They don’t tell the public that InTrade has just aggregated the state polls, which were quite accurate —giving a little plus to Obama in Missouri, where the polls were saying that “Missouri [...]

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