Comments on: Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/23/olivier-blanchard-imf/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/23/olivier-blanchard-imf/#comment-22907 Medemi Mon, 24 Nov 2008 23:35:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11682#comment-22907 One for you Chris. Big boys playing with monopoly money. :-D  <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Big-Apple-Microsoft-names-back/story.aspx?guid=%7BBB3FD178%2DC9B6%2D4AAA%2DB3BF%2D50D2DB9658AC%7D&dist=hplatest" rel="nofollow">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Big-Apple-Microsoft-names-back/story.aspx?guid=%7BBB3FD178%2DC9B6%2D4AAA%2DB3BF%2D50D2DB9658AC%7D&dist=hplatest</a> <a href="http://www.piqqem.com/help/faq" rel="nofollow">http://www.piqqem.com/help/faq</a> One for you Chris. Big boys playing with monopoly money. :-D

 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Big-Apple-Microsoft-names-back/story.aspx?guid=%7BBB3FD178%2DC9B6%2D4AAA%2DB3BF%2D50D2DB9658AC%7D&dist=hplatest

http://www.piqqem.com/help/faq

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/23/olivier-blanchard-imf/#comment-22905 Medemi Mon, 24 Nov 2008 22:25:02 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11682#comment-22905 IMO, there's a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010 a 40% chance we'll see a 5-10 year severe depression a 20% chance we'll recover in 2009 But you don't need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won't tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF. So there's your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market.  Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that.  IMO,

there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010
a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression
a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009

But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.

So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market. 
Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that. 

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/23/olivier-blanchard-imf/#comment-22897 Chris F. Masse Mon, 24 Nov 2008 20:09:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11682#comment-22897 I agree with you at 50%. I agree with you at 50%.

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/23/olivier-blanchard-imf/#comment-22895 Caveat Bettor Mon, 24 Nov 2008 18:40:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11682#comment-22895 The IMF is TARP for dictators.  Discount. The IMF is TARP for dictators.  Discount.

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