Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.

4 Responses to Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.

1. Caveat Bettor says:

   November 24, 2008 at 2:40 PM

   The IMF is TARP for dictators.  Discount.

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2. Chris F. Masse says:

   November 24, 2008 at 4:09 PM

   I agree with you at 50%.

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3. Medemi says:

   November 24, 2008 at 6:25 PM

   IMO,

   there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010
   a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression
   a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009

   But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.

   So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market. 
   Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that. 

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4. Medemi says:

   November 24, 2008 at 7:35 PM

   One for you Chris. Big boys playing with monopoly money.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Big-Apple-Microsoft-names-back/story.aspx?guid=%7BBB3FD178%2DC9B6%2D4AAA%2DB3BF%2D50D2DB9658AC%7D&dist=hplatest

   http://www.piqqem.com/help/faq

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