Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.

Chris F. Masse November 23rd, 2008

The worst is yet to come.

# Caveat Bettor on 24 Nov 2008 at 2:40 PM

The IMF is TARP for dictators. Discount.
# Chris F. Masse on 24 Nov 2008 at 4:09 PM

I agree with you at 50%.
# Medemion 24 Nov 2008 at 6:25 PM

IMO,

there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010
a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression
a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009

But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.

So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market.
Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that.
# Medemion 24 Nov 2008 at 7:35 PM

One for you Chris. Big boys playing with monopoly money.

http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....t=hplatest

http://www.piqqem.com/help/faq