3-outcome prediction markets
Chris F. Masse November 21st, 2008
Our good doctor Servan-Schreiber is not as smart as he thinks he is. Let me explain.
The great thing that NewsFutures has introduced to the world is prediction markets with perfectly symmetrical opposite outcomes. It is either white or black, and you can choose which side you want to bet on with a simple click of your mouse. NewsFutures is perfect in that regard.
However, our good doctor Servan-Schreiber, in his megalomaniac folly of Biblical proportions, insists on applying this binary-only model to everything on Earth (even on the fetuses, and also on the newly born, innocent babies). That’s pure madness. There are instances where 1 out of 3 outcomes (or more) is to be expected. Take European soccer (or “football”, as Europeans say). It happens often that a soccer match ends in a draw. The NewsFutures prediction markets on soccer are not able to compute that. NewsFutures wants us to bet either on one soccer team winning the match or on the opposite team. There is no possibility to bet on the draw. Come on, Emile.
Contrast that with HubDub, which has the right approach, in this case.
I like NewsFutures overall, and Emile is a man I trust on many issues —however, in this specific case, Emile has a spider in the ceiling.
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- Exchanges & Markets , Market Designs , Mechanism Designs
- Comments(2)
It`s not really so strange. The 1X2 style is popular in Europe but the two win or not to win style is popular in Asia and funnily enough called Asian Handicap betting. Not sure about this, but taking the world as a whole, i think the binary outcome is more popular.
Barry,
Emile does not only want to provide a game. He says that he is a forecaster, too. Good. In that case, he should not delete one of the 3 outcomes. That’s not professional —as a forecaster.