Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.

Posted on November 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

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Terrified. :-D

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About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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6 Responses to Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.

  1. Jed Christiansen says:
    November 20, 2008 at 9:45 AM

    Heh… okay, I’ll bite.

    My answer is: they can be.  To quote myself from the article you linked to:

    “While [prediction markets] are on par with the accuracy of the best poll aggregators, their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”

    But they won’t always be useful.

  2. Chris F. Masse says:
    November 20, 2008 at 10:19 AM

    “their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
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    That’s not a huge benefit for the people out there. They are not news junkies.
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    We have to dig more to find the real benefits of the prediction markets.
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  3. Jed Christiansen says:
    November 20, 2008 at 10:38 AM

    Perhaps that’s our disagreement.  I think that a real-time state-of-the-race is valuable.

  4. Chris F. Masse says:
    November 20, 2008 at 11:10 AM

    To news junkies like you and moi. Not to the real people out there.

  5. Pingback: Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits. | Midas Oracle .ORG

  6. Chris F. Masse says:
    November 27, 2008 at 6:57 AM

    ” their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
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    In a sense, the forecasts done by the poll aggregators (Nate Silver and Electoral-Vote.com) are also updated every day —which is a high enough frequency for most people.
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