Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.
Chris F. Masse November 20th, 2008
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6 Responses to “Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.”
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Heh… okay, I’ll bite.
My answer is: they can be. To quote myself from the article you linked to:
“While [prediction markets] are on par with the accuracy of the best poll aggregators, their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
But they won’t always be useful.
“their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
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That’s not a huge benefit for the people out there. They are not news junkies.
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We have to dig more to find the real benefits of the prediction markets.
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Perhaps that’s our disagreement. I think that a real-time state-of-the-race is valuable.
To news junkies like you and moi. Not to the real people out there.
[...] F. Masse November 25th, 2008 John Tierney and Jed Christiansen are making the same mistake: they think that people and experts should be impressed by the [...]
” their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
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In a sense, the forecasts done by the poll aggregators (Nate Silver and Electoral-Vote.com) are also updated every day —which is a high enough frequency for most people.
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