After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade.

Chris F. Masse November 19th, 2008

My post about the sudden closure of TradeSports was the #2 most downloaded webpages, yesterday —even though that post was published late yesterday. And this morning, I am receiving tons of e-mails from the InTrade and TradeSports traders (they are often the same people).

My reasoning:

InTrade is the twin site of TradeSports.
The closure of TradeSports was sudden.
The TradeSports owners have closed shop less than 2 months before the SuperBowl —the biggest $$$ drawer.
Now that the 2008 US presidential elections are over, the InTrade heyday is over. No more liquidity. No more media coverage. See you in 2010 and 2012.
If TradeSports couldn’t survive the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, I don’t see how a lean InTrade could do.
InTrade CEO John Delaney is not a truthful person. It is unlikely that any statement from him about the viability of InTrade should be taken seriously.
Midas Oracle used to received many daily server requests from the InTrade-TradeSports team in Ireland. The recent web stats show a sudden drop. This might signal that some key employees are in vacation —or have been laid off.
UPDATE: They seem now unable to expire a contract in the evening, Irish time.

TAKEAWAY:

The InTrade traders should prepare themselves for the worse —the sudden closure of InTrade.

Tags: betting exchanges, betting markets, closure, demise, end, Ethics, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, InTrade, John Delaney, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, real-money prediction exchanges, real-money prediction markets, TradeSports

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Comments(14)

14 Responses to “After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade.”

# Medemion 19 Nov 2008 at 4:23 AM

I agree, point 4 being the most obvious reason why Intrade will have to shut down.
And there are some major problems with their commission structure, the way markets are offered, the complexity of the platform and the variety of (non-sports) markets being offered. They won’t make it. Nice try, goodbye.
# Chris F. Masse on 19 Nov 2008 at 7:27 AM

Sad.
# The prediction market industry is not populated by truthful people. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 19 Nov 2008 at 7:40 AM

[...] Chris F. Masse November 19th, 2008 - InTrade CEO John Delaney has not yet clarified the death of TradeSports and the viability of InTrade. [...]
# The InTrade traders wonder what the future of InTrade is —now that TradeSports has bellied up in style. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 19 Nov 2008 at 8:35 AM

[...] Previously: on TradeSports death - on InTrade’s viability [...]
# InTrade is alive and kicking —says its CEO. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 19 Nov 2008 at 12:26 PM

[...] Previously: on TradeSports death - on InTrade’s viability [...]
# The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 19 Nov 2008 at 12:53 PM

[...] InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’t reveal ANYTHING about the future of InTrade. It will just aggregate InTrade’s PR [...]
# Mike Linksvayer on 19 Nov 2008 at 1:39 PM

Argh.

Re #4, why don’t non-US elections attract heavy trading? Current UK contracts are anemic, and there’s no barrier to UK trader participation. Does BetFair dominate UK political markets or something?
# Chris F. Masse on 19 Nov 2008 at 1:50 PM

John Delaney has always focused InTrade on the US —for some reasons. And, anyway, BetFair has 95% of the UK betting exchange market.
# Chris F. Masse on 20 Nov 2008 at 10:28 AM

Why did John Delaney shut down TradeSports?
# TradeSports & InTrade — The saga continues… | Midas Oracle .ORGon 20 Nov 2008 at 1:21 PM

[...] Previously: on TradeSports death - on InTrade’s viability [...]
# Chris F. Masse on 22 Nov 2008 at 7:23 AM

http://www.sportstradingchatte.....#post1491_
# Chris F. Masse on 22 Nov 2008 at 7:25 AM

Is this the reason John Delaney quickly shut TradeSports down, yesterday? | Midas Oracle .ORG
# World’s #1 finance blogger withdraws all his money from InTrade… and blogs about it —detailing his negative customer experience to his thousands of Wall Street readers. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 04 Dec 2008 at 10:49 AM

[...] Previously: on TradeSports death - on InTrade’s viability [...]
# A Canadian event derivative trader reflects on the future of InTrade and Tradesports. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 07 Dec 2008 at 2:03 PM

[...] Previously: on TradeSports death - on InTrade’s viability [...]