After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade.

Posted on November 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

My post about the sudden closure of TradeSports was the #2 most downloaded webpages, yesterday —even though that post was published late yesterday. And this morning, I am receiving tons of e-mails from the InTrade and TradeSports traders (they are often the same people).

My reasoning:

  1. InTrade is the twin site of TradeSports.
  2. The closure of TradeSports was sudden.
  3. The TradeSports owners have closed shop less than 2 months before the SuperBowl —the biggest $$$ drawer.
  4. Now that the 2008 US presidential elections are over, the InTrade heyday is over. No more liquidity. No more media coverage. See you in 2010 and 2012.
  5. If TradeSports couldn’t survive the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, I don’t see how a lean InTrade could do.
  6. InTrade CEO John Delaney is not a truthful person. It is unlikely that any statement from him about the viability of InTrade should be taken seriously.
  7. Midas Oracle used to received many daily server requests from the InTrade-TradeSports team in Ireland. The recent web stats show a sudden drop. This might signal that some key employees are in vacation —or have been laid off.
  8. UPDATE: They seem now unable to expire a contract in the evening, Irish time.

TAKEAWAY:

  • The InTrade traders should prepare themselves for the worse —the sudden closure of InTrade.

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About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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15 Responses to After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade.

  1. Medemi says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:23 AM

    I agree, point 4 being the most obvious reason why Intrade will have to shut down.
    And there are some major problems with their commission structure, the way markets are offered, the complexity of the platform and the variety of (non-sports) markets being offered. They won’t make it. Nice try, goodbye.

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  7. Mike Linksvayer says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:39 PM

    Argh.

    Re #4, why don’t non-US elections attract heavy trading?  Current UK contracts are anemic, and there’s no barrier to UK trader participation.  Does BetFair dominate UK political markets or something?

  8. Chris F. Masse says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:50 PM

    John Delaney has always focused InTrade on the US —for some reasons. And, anyway, BetFair has 95% of the UK betting exchange market.

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