Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
- A portrait of Nate Silver in the New York Times.
- Jed Christiansen’s post-mortem on the 2008 US presidential elections.
I’ll have many remarks to add to his analysis.
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Thanks for the link, Chris. I would certainly be interested in any feedback. I read Jason’s post from a couple days ago after I put up my post, and I think we’re generally on the same page. (PM’s and top poll aggregators had similar performance, but PM’s can react to new news much faster than sites like 538).
Regarding the time issue, if we picture the Intrade Dems-to-win chart and another one that is identical but always 2% higher up until the last day, I would say the other one reflects the dynamism of the situation and was more accurate. If we instead have a forecast that always gave 98% Dems-to-win, then clearly something is amiss despite there being less historical error.
Apart from his quantitative predictions, Nate Silver also provides good political commentary. No “prediction market journalist” has done that on a near-daily basis for a while now.
By the way, it is tempting to short Clinton-for-SoS up here in the 80s, but that might just be based on the ingrained notion that Clinton-related contracts on Intrade are always overbid!
Definitely agree with you. Unfortunately I haven’t seen any charts that have compared Nate Silver’s forecasts to InTrade or any other markets’ forecasts. That would be really interesting to see.
I also completely agree with your second paragraph. It was really interesting to read thoughtful commentary fueled by facts (and clearly stated when opinion was expressed) as well as the travels of his co-writers to all of the various battleground states. They found a story that no one else ever seemed to pick up on, and it tended to confirm their other findings.
Apart from his quantitative predictions, Nate Silver also provides good political commentary. No “prediction market journalist” has done that on a near-daily basis for a while now.
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Yes.
Political PMJ requires one political expert as the writer and a PM expert as the editor. Hence, PMJ is 2 times more costly than classic journalism. Nobody wants to pay for that, as of today.