But if a prediction market is an information aggregation mechanism, should you ask just any question before ever checking that there is indeed something to aggregate? For instance, can a prediction market foretell whether your competitor’s molecule will be approved by the FDA? I would say that it can’t in case your own competitive intelligence department can’t. That’s worth checking with them before setting up that prediction market.
NO PRIMARY INDICATORS = NO PREDICTION MARKETS
RELATED APPENDIX: See the comments here about primary indicators and prediction markets.
