Comments on: Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/09/analysis-of-barr-and-nader-2008-intrade-contracts/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/09/analysis-of-barr-and-nader-2008-intrade-contracts/#comment-22689 Mike Linksvayer Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:04:25 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11300#comment-22689 Barr and Nader contracts are now expired. Barr and Nader contracts are now expired.

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/09/analysis-of-barr-and-nader-2008-intrade-contracts/#comment-22687 Mike Linksvayer Tue, 11 Nov 2008 00:18:14 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11300#comment-22687 Thanks Jed. I wrote Intrade about expiring the contracts while I was putting this post together and got a reply saying they'd forward to the appropriate <del datetime="00">trash bin</del>personnel. At this point Barr or Nader clearing 1% (let alone 2% or above) must be about as good as McCain catching up with Obama. :) Thanks Jed.

I wrote Intrade about expiring the contracts while I was putting this post together and got a reply saying they’d forward to the appropriate trash binpersonnel.

At this point Barr or Nader clearing 1% (let alone 2% or above) must be about as good as McCain catching up with Obama. :)

]]> By: Jed Christiansen http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/09/analysis-of-barr-and-nader-2008-intrade-contracts/#comment-22679 Jed Christiansen Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:32:16 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11300#comment-22679 Mike, great post. Perhaps the reason InTrade hasn't expired them is because finding exact results for third-party candidates is more problematic?  I know they weren't on all 50 states' ballots, so they might need to do some additional research in the states where they weren't explicitly on the ballot in order to finalize the results? Based on what you've written I'm guessing it's a mathematical impossibility, though. Mike, great post.

Perhaps the reason InTrade hasn’t expired them is because finding exact results for third-party candidates is more problematic?  I know they weren’t on all 50 states’ ballots, so they might need to do some additional research in the states where they weren’t explicitly on the ballot in order to finalize the results?

Based on what you’ve written I’m guessing it’s a mathematical impossibility, though.

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