Comments on: Nate Silver “killed” InTrade. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/nate-silver-killed-intrade/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/nate-silver-killed-intrade/#comment-22641 Jason Ruspini Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:25:15 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11236#comment-22641 Mr Tea, Unlike Zubin Jelveh who was looking at one-observation samples, I was looking at the state markets where we had 51 observations.   I'll have more on this soon. Mr Tea, Unlike Zubin Jelveh who was looking at one-observation samples, I was looking at the state markets where we had 51 observations.   I’ll have more on this soon.

]]> By: teaNoranges http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/nate-silver-killed-intrade/#comment-22624 teaNoranges Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:42:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11236#comment-22624 Mr. Ruspini, how do you compare 'errors' between Intrade and Silver? What metric should be used to assess how well a probability predicted a binary outcome when you only have one data point? Mr. Ruspini, how do you compare ‘errors’ between Intrade and Silver?

What metric should be used to assess how well a probability predicted a binary outcome when you only have one data point?

]]> By: My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/nate-silver-killed-intrade/#comment-22621 My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 06 Nov 2008 10:43:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11236#comment-22621 [...] What Nate Silver predicted: [...] [...] What Nate Silver predicted: [...]

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