Nate Silver “killed” InTrade.
Nate Silver “killed” InTrade.
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Mr. Ruspini, how do you compare ‘errors’ between Intrade and Silver?
What metric should be used to assess how well a probability predicted a binary outcome when you only have one data point?
Mr Tea, Unlike Zubin Jelveh who was looking at one-observation samples, I was looking at the state markets where we had 51 observations. I’ll have more on this soon.