Comments on: My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/intrade-superman/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang to step down — But the InTrade prediction market failed to foretell us that. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/intrade-superman/#comment-22779 Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang to step down — But the InTrade prediction market failed to foretell us that. | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:03:31 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11233#comment-22779 [...] passing, this failure reminds me that the biggest lie that the prediction market pushers propagate on the Web is that real-money prediction markets attract insiders’ information. You [...] [...] passing, this failure reminds me that the biggest lie that the prediction market pushers propagate on the Web is that real-money prediction markets attract insiders’ information. You [...]

]]> By: My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/intrade-superman/#comment-22743 My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis | Midas Oracle .ORG Sat, 15 Nov 2008 18:27:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11233#comment-22743 [...] time I ask this question to one of the prediction market luminaries (or so they think they are), I get back [...] [...] time I ask this question to one of the prediction market luminaries (or so they think they are), I get back [...]

]]> By: Jed Christiansen http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/06/intrade-superman/#comment-22680 Jed Christiansen Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:57:39 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11233#comment-22680 Chris, I agree with you pretty much completely on this. Prediction markets are best when forecasting variables that will be known/revealed at a particular time in the future.  Many of the important ones already exist and are taken for granted; oil futures, for example.  Tryint to say that prediction markets will solve the worlds' problems is essentially marketing bluster. What these tools of ours do is try to put numbers on problems that are difficult to assess.  Markets are great tools for aggregating information.  But they will never deviate from conventional wisdom, they only serve to put a number on the conventional wisdom.  They are superior to other tools because the numbers are more accurate when you ask more people in a non-biased way. Chris,

I agree with you pretty much completely on this.

Prediction markets are best when forecasting variables that will be known/revealed at a particular time in the future.  Many of the important ones already exist and are taken for granted; oil futures, for example.  Tryint to say that prediction markets will solve the worlds’ problems is essentially marketing bluster.

What these tools of ours do is try to put numbers on problems that are difficult to assess.  Markets are great tools for aggregating information.  But they will never deviate from conventional wisdom, they only serve to put a number on the conventional wisdom.  They are superior to other tools because the numbers are more accurate when you ask more people in a non-biased way.

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