Comments on: What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Prediction markets on stock prices are not the panacea. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22785 Prediction markets on stock prices are not the panacea. | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 18 Nov 2008 16:50:08 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22785 [...] The EPS prediction markets were a better idea, because they have many more primary indicators. [...] [...] The EPS prediction markets were a better idea, because they have many more primary indicators. [...]

]]> By: InTrade set up yet another obscure prediction market that that bombastic flake of Chris Masse will call a loser. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22714 InTrade set up yet another obscure prediction market that that bombastic flake of Chris Masse will call a loser. | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 13 Nov 2008 14:55:30 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22714 [...] is a lemon, just like the prediction market on the Mei Moses Art Index (29 trades, so far) —for the very same reason I exposed here. I wish them good luck, [...] [...] is a lemon, just like the prediction market on the Mei Moses Art Index (29 trades, so far) —for the very same reason I exposed here. I wish them good luck, [...]

]]> By: Enterprise Prediction Markets = Voodoo Forecasting? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22685 Enterprise Prediction Markets = Voodoo Forecasting? | Midas Oracle .ORG Mon, 10 Nov 2008 22:12:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22685 [...] RELATED APPENDIX: See the comments here about primary indicators and prediction markets. [...] [...] RELATED APPENDIX: See the comments here about primary indicators and prediction markets. [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22652 Chris F. Masse Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:22:11 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22652 Medemi, I disagree with your long comment. Event derivative traders want to see BOTH raw information AND ready-to-wear analysis and recommendations from experts. Thanks for your comment. Medemi, I disagree with your long comment. Event derivative traders want to see BOTH raw information AND ready-to-wear analysis and recommendations from experts.
Thanks for your comment.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22651 Chris F. Masse Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:16:35 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22651 "Prediction markets are offered by the people for the people." I don't disagree with that. Let me see you longer comment, now. “Prediction markets are offered by the people for the people.” I don’t disagree with that. Let me see you longer comment, now.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22648 Medemi Fri, 07 Nov 2008 12:05:01 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22648 Prediction markets are offered by the people for the people. Never forget that. Prediction markets are offered by the people for the people. Never forget that.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22647 Medemi Fri, 07 Nov 2008 11:45:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22647 Chris,   I agree that the availability of raw data and other pieces of information is crucial for prediction markets. But we don't need expert opinions IMO (it goes very much against the wisdom of the crowd principle anyway). It's the information and subjective value of that information that matters to people. They prefer to make up their own mind based on the information available, and they should. Information sharing is also crucial (on forums for instance) but it can be the ordinary guy in the street who supplies it, so others can debate/reflect on it. This happens a lot - the facts are posted, not so much the expert opinions. The only reason why people share information is because they are unable to determine it's value, and that includes the information provided by your experts. Because believe me, when it's value can be determined beyond any reasonable doubt, it won't be made public (in real money exchanges). Systems that work don't get sold, ever ! Which brings me to another, smaller group of people, who do their own homework, analysis and God knows what else. There are some big players in this group with a significant impact on liquidity and market prices.   The reason why "your" very own blog is so succesful is because it offers a wide range of information. There's something in here for everyone. People generally are not interested in your opinion Chris, or mine for that matter. But you already knew that. So, it's kind of funny that you would point out the importance of expert opinions, because you are a prediction market expert yourself, whether you like it or not.   I can see a lot of dangers ahead for prediction markets when people over-sell the importance of expert opinions. I really don't need to get into this, just take a look around and do your homework. Chris,
 
I agree that the availability of raw data and other pieces of information is crucial for prediction markets. But we don’t need expert opinions IMO (it goes very much against the wisdom of the crowd principle anyway). It’s the information and subjective value of that information that matters to people. They prefer to make up their own mind based on the information available, and they should.
Information sharing is also crucial (on forums for instance) but it can be the ordinary guy in the street who supplies it, so others can debate/reflect on it. This happens a lot – the facts are posted, not so much the expert opinions.
The only reason why people share information is because they are unable to determine it’s value, and that includes the information provided by your experts. Because believe me, when it’s value can be determined beyond any reasonable doubt, it won’t be made public (in real money exchanges). Systems that work don’t get sold, ever !
Which brings me to another, smaller group of people, who do their own homework, analysis and God knows what else. There are some big players in this group with a significant impact on liquidity and market prices.
 
The reason why “your” very own blog is so succesful is because it offers a wide range of information. There’s something in here for everyone. People generally are not interested in your opinion Chris, or mine for that matter. But you already knew that.
So, it’s kind of funny that you would point out the importance of expert opinions, because you are a prediction market expert yourself, whether you like it or not.
 
I can see a lot of dangers ahead for prediction markets when people over-sell the importance of expert opinions. I really don’t need to get into this, just take a look around and do your homework.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22645 Chris F. Masse Fri, 07 Nov 2008 09:33:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22645 13 trades, now. - Medemi, Nate Silver is an example of those. 13 trades, now.
-
Medemi, Nate Silver is an example of those.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22640 Jason Ruspini Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:22:52 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22640 Yes, there are certainly fewer clear catalysts for trading fine art which is why I said "regardless of commission generation" for exchanges.  Part of the reason for that is that no-one in the industry has an incentive for prices to go down. Yes, there are certainly fewer clear catalysts for trading fine art which is why I said “regardless of commission generation” for exchanges.  Part of the reason for that is that no-one in the industry has an incentive for prices to go down.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/05/mei-moses-fine-art-index-climate-change/#comment-22638 Medemi Thu, 06 Nov 2008 22:30:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11198#comment-22638 <em>"I am talking about reliable, independent experts whose analysis are posted for free on the Web."</em> You really are a funny guy, sometimes. “I am talking about reliable, independent experts whose analysis are posted for free on the Web.”

You really are a funny guy, sometimes.

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