Comments on: Futarchy Lite 2008 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/03/futarchy-lite-2008/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Mon, 22 Mar 2010 06:35:40 -0400 hourly 1 By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/03/futarchy-lite-2008/#comment-22627 Mike Linksvayer Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:23:42 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11081#comment-22627 I very much look forward to your careful analysis. It isn't completely obvious to me that recent financial news should cause the implied debt increase to increase over the period the contract concerns -- <em>between 30 Sep 2010 and 30 Sep 2011.</em> I very much look forward to your careful analysis.

It isn’t completely obvious to me that recent financial news should cause the implied debt increase to increase over the period the contract concerns — between 30 Sep 2010 and 30 Sep 2011.

]]> By: Peter McCluskey http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/03/futarchy-lite-2008/#comment-22520 Peter McCluskey Mon, 03 Nov 2008 17:56:52 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11081#comment-22520 I'm unwilling to trust these prices. Some simple reasons (I'll post a more careful analysis on <a href="http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog" rel="nofollow">my blog</a> within a week): NONDEM.PRES-GOVT.DEBT and NONDEM.PRES-TROOPS.IRAQ prices have often implied they would be expired above 100 if the Republican wins, when the rules say the maximum expiration value is 100. The implied values show large moves with the Democrat and Republican implied prices going in opposite directions. This appears to indicate market inefficiencies that are large compared to the implied differences between the Democrat and Republican implied results. The financial news over the past two months ought to have caused the implied debt increase to rise in ways independent of the election result, but I see no such effect in the graphs you present. I’m unwilling to trust these prices. Some simple reasons (I’ll post a more careful analysis on my blog within a week):
NONDEM.PRES-GOVT.DEBT and NONDEM.PRES-TROOPS.IRAQ prices have often implied they would be expired above 100 if the Republican wins, when the rules say the maximum expiration value is 100.
The implied values show large moves with the Democrat and Republican implied prices going in opposite directions. This appears to indicate market inefficiencies that are large compared to the implied differences between the Democrat and Republican implied results. The financial news over the past two months ought to have caused the implied debt increase to rise in ways independent of the election result, but I see no such effect in the graphs you present.

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer » Futarchist Voter Guide http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/03/futarchy-lite-2008/#comment-22507 Mike Linksvayer » Futarchist Voter Guide Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:18:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11081#comment-22507 [...] Addendum 20081103: See a slightly expanded version of this post at Midas Oracle. [...] [...] Addendum 20081103: See a slightly expanded version of this post at Midas Oracle. [...]

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