Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election —based on state polls and prediction markets

Wanna know who is going to win on November 4?

Do scroll down.

Contents:

a visual roundup of the odds for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state polls
more odds

2008 US Electoral College

- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

- This is a dynamic electoral map from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

THE LATEST NEWS

- The media are running stories about future “record turnout” among young voters. I am a bit prudent, since the media ran this kind of stories in 2004, saying that the voting youth would favor John Kerry —we know how it all ended up. Let’s wait and see.

- The stock markets are slightly up this Thursday morning. However, once the stock investors have read the New York Times investigation of how A.I.G. is rapidly burning all of the $123 bilion in “emergency lending” they received from the Treasury, I bet that the Dow Jones will end up South.

- Karl Rove tells the Wall Street Journal readers that voters should not believe in polls, since “they were wrong in 2000 and 2004″. Hummm… His Op-Ed is not convincing, because the 2000 election was a very close election and the 2004 election was a somewhat close election. It seems different today. Some pundits are predicting a “landslide” for Barack Obama.

- The man running the popular site “Electoral-Vote.com” website deflates the big egos of the crétins who assume that InTrade is a magical tool. “Very likely, the [InTrade] bettors are prime consumers of polling data.” He is right. If you haven’t done already, please read the analysis I have done about the real utility of the InTrade prediction markets on the US elections.

- The online magazine Slate has run a poll inside its news desk —asking employees for whom they are going to vote. All of the Slate journalists will vote for Barack Obama —except one who will vote for John McCain, and another one (Jack Shaffer) who will vote for the Libertarian Party. So now you know we have a liberal Press.

- Speaking of the Press, I spotted 2 negative stories about John McCain’s character. One by David Broder in the Washington Post. Another one by Andrew Sullivan.

- The most surprising thing I have read this morning in the Press is a short affidavit from Francis Fukuyama telling his fellow conservative citizens that he is going to vote for Barack Obama, on the ground that both George W. Bush and John McCain are not Reaganian enough. But what about voting for a Socialist, then?

- If you read my first story on the “Reverse Bradley Effect”, please read the follow-up post that takes a second look on whether race will play a role in the November 4 elections.

- Right-click on this link, and open it in another browser tab —it’s a short, rolling, historical panorama of how the US states voted since the inception of America.

- The HubDub traders are predicting that more than 50 million people have watched the Barack Obama informercial.

- Here’s the video of the (Socialist) informercial run Thursday nite by the Barack Obama campaign:

THE STATE POLLS

CNN:

Pollster:

Electoral-Vote:

Nate Silver:

PollTrack:

MORE ODDS FROM THE PREDICTION MARKETS

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of the partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

- Listed below are the odds produced by the prediction exchanges. If you are interested in the predictions, we advise you to have a close look, first, at the real-money prediction markets (InTrade, BetFair and the Iowa Electronic Markets). Now, if you want to have real fun interacting with the news, we recommend that you trade on the play-money prediction markets (HubDub and NewsFutures).

- If you want to visit one of those prediction exchanges, put your mouse on the selected dynamic chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab.

2008 US Elections

InTrade

2008 US Electoral College

2008 US Presidential Elections – By State

- To get to the InTrade prediction market webpage for a specific state, right-click the state link, and open it in another browser tab.

State of Alabama – Democratic – Republican
State of Alaska – Democratic – Republican
State of Arizona – Democratic – Republican
State of Arkansas – Democratic – Republican
State of California – Democratic – Republican
State of Colorado – Democratic – Republican
District of Columbia – Democratic – Republican
State of Connecticut – Democratic – Republican
State of Delaware – Democratic – Republican
State of Florida – Democratic – Republican
State of Georgia – Democratic – Republican
State of Hawaii – Democratic – Republican
State of Idaho – Democratic – Republican
State of Illinois – Democratic – Republican
State of Indiana – Democratic – Republican
State of Iowa – Democratic – Republican
State of Kansas – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Kentucky – Democratic – Republican
State of Louisiana – Democratic – Republican
State of Maine – Democratic – Republican
State of Maryland – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Massachusetts – Democratic – Republican
State of Michigan – Democratic – Republican
State of Minnesota – Democratic - Republican
State of Mississippi – Democratic – Republican
State of Missouri – Democratic – Republican
State of Montana – Democratic – Republican
State of Nebraska – Democratic – Republican
State of Nevada – Democratic – Republican
State of New Hampshire – Democratic – Republican
State of New Jersey – Democratic – Republican
State of New Mexico – Democratic – Republican
State of New York – Democratic – Republican
State of North Carolina – Democratic – Republican
State of North Dakota – Democratic – Republican
State of Ohio – Democratic – Republican
State of Oklahoma – Democratic - Republican
State of Oregon – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania – Democratic – Republican
State of Rhode Island – Democratic – Republican
State of South Carolina – Democratic – Republican
State of South Dakota – Democratic – Republican
State of Tennessee – Democratic – Republican
State of Texas – Democratic – Republican
State of Utah – Democratic – Republican
State of Vermont – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Virginia – Democratic – Republican
State of Washington – Democratic – Republican
State of West Virginia – Democratic – Republican
State of Wisconsin – Democratic – Republican
State of Wyoming – Democratic – Republican

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage. – [The InTrade dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

2008 US Senate Control

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

BetFair

Winning Party

Next US President

- This is a dynamic compound chart from BetFair, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this BetFair widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

Source:

- BetFair Politics Zone

- BetFair Chart Widgets – [They are based on Flash, a shitty technology that doesn't go into feeds.]

Iowa Electronic Markets

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

HubDub

2008 US Presidential Elections

- This is a dynamic electoral map from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

- This is a dynamic compound chart from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds.]

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

2008 US Senate Elections

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in the Senate after the 08 Elections?

2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in House of Representatives after 08 Elections?

NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

Next US President Will Be Republican.

Swing States For The 2008 US Presidential Elections

- 2008 Electoral College

- NewsFutures and Bet2Give used to have chart widgets on the US primaries, which didn’t go into feed readers. We are waiting for their next chart widgets.

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- CNN – US Electoral Map

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Pollster – Polls

- Poll Track – Polls

- Wikipedia – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections