Comments on: Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Sat, 20 Mar 2010 08:05:32 -0400 hourly 1 By: My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22618 My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 06 Nov 2008 10:06:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22618 [...] I have already expressed my deep skepticism for this kind of grandiose discourse. [...] [...] I have already expressed my deep skepticism for this kind of grandiose discourse. [...]

]]> By: What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22348 What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets? | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:52:13 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22348 [...] out there. Prediction markets cannot be a substitute for the credit rating agencies —that’s the biggest stupidity I have ever heard in my life. (How come a CEO can state such a crétinery, and how come Jason Ruspini can endorse indirectly [...] [...] out there. Prediction markets cannot be a substitute for the credit rating agencies —that’s the biggest stupidity I have ever heard in my life. (How come a CEO can state such a crétinery, and how come Jason Ruspini can endorse indirectly [...]

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22315 Medemi Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:42:11 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22315 I don't mean "your" factual world, just in general. I don’t mean “your” factual world, just in general.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22314 Medemi Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:40:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22314 Chris, if you're looking for facts that support JD 's "claims" then probably there aren't any. Some of us look at possibilities as well, and it doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to see how prediction markets can help avoid a crisis. In fact, there are many indicators today which can help avoid a crisis. The Americans are good at this sort of thing. Doesn't mean any of them could have helped to prevent this crisis, or the next one. Your "factual" world does not represent reality any more than our beliefs. On the contrary, your factual world sucks big time. Chris,

if you’re looking for facts that support JD ’s “claims” then probably there aren’t any. Some of us look at possibilities as well, and it doesn’t take a whole lot of imagination to see how prediction markets can help avoid a crisis. In fact, there are many indicators today which can help avoid a crisis. The Americans are good at this sort of thing. Doesn’t mean any of them could have helped to prevent this crisis, or the next one.
Your “factual” world does not represent reality any more than our beliefs. On the contrary, your factual world sucks big time.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22310 Chris F. Masse Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:26:56 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22310 I do have a point. I do have a point.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22308 Jason Ruspini Mon, 27 Oct 2008 12:29:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22308 If you have any substantive disagreements I would be glad to hear them.  I have been plenty critical of Intrade recently.  Just because you preface something with "the point is" doesn't mean you have a point. If you have any substantive disagreements I would be glad to hear them.  I have been plenty critical of Intrade recently.  Just because you preface something with “the point is” doesn’t mean you have a point.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22293 Chris F. Masse Mon, 27 Oct 2008 08:14:35 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22293 Jason, whatever. That was not my point. My point is that John Delaney says a cretinery, and, immediately, you rush to somewhat flatter him. You have been acting like JD's poodle, recently. The risk is that you are going to lose your reputation and credibility. Jason, whatever. That was not my point. My point is that John Delaney says a cretinery, and, immediately, you rush to somewhat flatter him. You have been acting like JD’s poodle, recently. The risk is that you are going to lose your reputation and credibility.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/26/preventing-financial-cataclysms/#comment-22291 Jason Ruspini Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:10:05 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10802#comment-22291 As I indicated in my previous comment, if the assets in question had benefited from the price discovery of a public exchange, they would have delivered less of a shock to credit markets overall.  Of course trading on public exchanges will tend to help.  Is that seriously a question on the main prediction market blog? Of course there are scenarios where prediction markets might actually aggravate a crisis.  Suppressing these possibilities with idealistic assumptions is more of a danger to credibility than slightly over-selling the upside. As I indicated in my previous comment, if the assets in question had benefited from the price discovery of a public exchange, they would have delivered less of a shock to credit markets overall.  Of course trading on public exchanges will tend to help.  Is that seriously a question on the main prediction market blog?

Of course there are scenarios where prediction markets might actually aggravate a crisis.  Suppressing these possibilities with idealistic assumptions is more of a danger to credibility than slightly over-selling the upside.

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