Comments on: Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting

By: The San Francisco conference on prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG

The San Francisco conference on prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:19:53 +0000

[...] to talk about combinatorial prediction markets (a very hot topic these days) —instead of stuff about how to quantify prediction market value (a too much theoretical issue for business [...]

By: NewsFutures’ Scientific Advisory Board | Midas Oracle .ORG

NewsFutures’ Scientific Advisory Board | Midas Oracle .ORG — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:38:56 +0000

[...] – Emile Servan-Schreiber didn’t like that too much, for some reason. [...]

By: Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”? | Midas Oracle .ORG

Sun, 26 Oct 2008 21:17:19 +0000

[...] Is Robin Hason the only adult in the field of prediction markets? [...]

By: “Competitive Forecasting” (the brand which NewsFutures’ Emile Servan-Schreiber is so sanguine about) is probably more than a generic mark, it might well be a descriptive mark —provided X, Y and Z. | Midas Oracle .ORG

Sun, 26 Oct 2008 09:12:49 +0000

[...] (going beyond accuracy, onto utility) —ironically, the kind of stuff that Robin Hanson is researching more seriously these days (PPT [...]

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 10:48:31 +0000

RE: “matters of trademarks”
The issue has everything to do with the matters of trademarks.
Emile chose, in 2006, a generic brand (“competitive forecasting”) for his product. It was a mistake.
A good brand that stands up over the years is something that does not describe what you are doing.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/24/competitive-forecasting-newsfutures/#comment-22266
A good brand is something that people and scholars won’t use to describe something.
If they do, your brand is toasted. (And trampling the carcass of one scholar, chosen as a scapegoat, won’t help anything.)
-
PS: Remember Google fighting against journalists using the verb “to google” as the equivalent of “to search the Web”? The Google lawyer has a good case, here, because “Google” means nothing by itself. Page and Brin made up this word completely. Emile should have done that, instead of beating to death the only scholar who, ironically, has the same good views as Emile does on matters about the informational value of the prediction markets.

By: Jason Ruspini

Jason Ruspini — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 21:33:06 +0000

Nothing to do with matters of trademarks and the like, but I wonder what percentage of PM consultants’ forecasts can be described as “decision markets”, i.e. conditional markets?Â Seems like that’s where their value should be demonstrated because of smaller timescales, regulatory issues, etcÂ Â I hope those are the projects Dr. Hanson recently referred to when he said that he was considering a blogging hiatus.

By: Does “Competitive Forecasting” belong to NewsFutures? | Midas Oracle .ORG

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 19:36:15 +0000

[...] Chris F. Masse October 24th, 2008 I’d say no, but I could be damn wrong. [...]

By: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:39:17 +0000

Emile, do you see the phrase as a trademark referring to your specific tool?Â We need a term broader than “prediction markets” to describe the class of related tools, and I thought the phrase you coined was a good choice for that.

By: Emile Servan-Schreiber

Emile Servan-Schreiber — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:31:25 +0000

I’m surprised to see the term “competitive forecasting” so carelessly used to refer to something unrelated to its origin as a specific NewsFutures tool. Then again, I’m not surprised to see Consensus Point (via its Chief Scientific Officer) following in this way in NewsFutures’ footsteps. Then again, if you’re going to follow, calling yourselfÂ “The Leader”, as the new CP website so loudly brags, seems inappropriate.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 06:19:42 +0000

I understand that, and that’s why I hope many prediction market experts will look at those interesting slides.
(As I said, they are “technical” in a way, that’s why our casual readers should be told about that.)