Political prediction markets should move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value.

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I agree with that.

The key, now, is to go beyond the accuracy issue and to move on to the utility issue.

It&#8217-s a much complex problematic, which those who have been over-selling the prediction markets are unwilling to undertake. [*]

Maybe a small bunch of prediction market people, maybe assembled in a new prediction market structure, might go for that lofty goal of fingering the specific instances where prediction markets create real social utility.

[*] Yelling across the harbor, like an illuminated Jesus Christ, that prediction markets can help &#8220-avoiding future [financial] crisis&#8221- is a sign that some prediction market practitioners have lost their intellectual compass. To my knowledge, InTrade hadn&#8217-t had any prediction market focused on the &#8220-looming credit crunch crisis&#8221-, last summer. Its CEO should be careful about making any grand statement. As I wrote many times, at best, the prediction markets are the best umpire you can have between either the mass media and the politicians, on one hand, and a group consisting of the best experts, on the other hand. An umpire is only useful during critical times, in a game. But, other than that, most of the times, the umpire is not the determinant of the game &#8212-the players are.

The researchers and practitioners should make a solid case for each of these critical instances where the prediction markets have a real social utility.

Stop the over-selling. Let&#8217-s start the real work.

12 thoughts on “Political prediction markets should move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value.

  1. Medemi said:

    Whenever you’re ready Chris, because you’re falling behind rapidly.

  2. Medemi said:

    Do you hate me, Chris.  🙂

  3. The New York Times on InTrade's US political election prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] See the comments on Midas Oracle here, here, here, and […]

  4. Medemi said:

    “To my knowledge, InTrade hadn’t had any prediction market focused on the “looming credit crunch crisis”

    To be able to prevent a crisis, we need more markets. John Delaney talked about that. We also need people with vision. Hopefully John Delaney is such a guy.

    One market I would like to see, is a market expressing the likelihood that the next president will still be alive, 12 months from his inauguration. We need it now, not 2 weeks from now.

    We’re already too late.

  5. Medemi said:

    Whenever you’re ready Chris, because you’re falling behind rapidly.

  6. Medemi said:

    Do you hate me, Chris.  🙂

  7. The New York Times on InTrade's US political election prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] See the comments on Midas Oracle here, here, here, and […]

  8. Medemi said:

    “To my knowledge, InTrade hadn’t had any prediction market focused on the “looming credit crunch crisis”

    To be able to prevent a crisis, we need more markets. John Delaney talked about that. We also need people with vision. Hopefully John Delaney is such a guy.

    One market I would like to see, is a market expressing the likelihood that the next president will still be alive, 12 months from his inauguration. We need it now, not 2 weeks from now.

    We’re already too late.

  9. Medemi said:

    Whenever you’re ready Chris, because you’re falling behind rapidly.

  10. Medemi said:

    Do you hate me, Chris.  🙂

  11. The New York Times on InTrade's US political election prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] See the comments on Midas Oracle here, here, here, and […]

  12. Medemi said:

    “To my knowledge, InTrade hadn’t had any prediction market focused on the “looming credit crunch crisis”

    To be able to prevent a crisis, we need more markets. John Delaney talked about that. We also need people with vision. Hopefully John Delaney is such a guy.

    One market I would like to see, is a market expressing the likelihood that the next president will still be alive, 12 months from his inauguration. We need it now, not 2 weeks from now.

    We’re already too late.

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