Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

TradeFair was first branded as a serious financial prediction exchange, but it didn’t work out, and TradeFair is now actually an operator that applies gambling (not betting) to the financial markets.

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Take a look at their ad:

Three remarks:

  • They got carried away from the prediction market approach (which, unlike InTrade, they never understood fully, anyway).
  • This gambling approach of the marketing of the prediction markets is very interesting in terms of potential revenue growth. I encourage InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures and HubDub to adopt it.
  • However, it remains to be seen whether TradeFair is the right venue for gambling. TradeFair was supposed to be a serious financial prediction exchange (the British equivalent of HedgeStreet), and it is now the online equivalent of Macao or Las Vegas. Hummm… Will these 2 different worlds mix well together? Could La Callas sell pork sausages? Could Yehudi Menuhin sell used condoms?
  • And I won’t mention the issue of problem gambling, which I predict will be made worse thanks to TradeFair Hi & Lo and BetFair Arcades.

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Once the previous bet is resolved, you can start off anew with another 5-minute bet on the FTSE —from the level that was the basis for the settlement of the previous bet.

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