InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of art. These innovative prediction markets will fail miserably. Here’s why. You heard it here first.

Those brand-new InTrade prediction markets will be based on the Mei Moses All Art Index.

Financial Times

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At first glance, that looks like a very bad idea. Indeed, I don’t see what primary indicators will be used by the event derivative traders to inform their betting decisions.

Is it another bad move from Chad Rigetti?

P.S.: I wish I am wrong, and this becomes an instant success for InTrade. (I would rather see them experimenting with the 5-minute prediction markets.)