Unlike InTrade, BetFair and NewsFutures, HubDub made dynamic compound chart widgets that can go into feed readers.

INTRADE: FAIL

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.]

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.]

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BETFAIR: FAIL

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- This is a dynamic presidential compound chart from BetFair, which is up to date. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this BetFair widget.]

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NEWSFUTURES AND BET2GIVE: FAIL

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- NewsFutures and Bet2Give used to have widgets on the US primaries, which didn’t go into feed readers. We are waiting for their next widgets. [Below is the outdated Bet2Give widget. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this Bet2Give widget.]

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HUBDUB: SUCCESS

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HubDub

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. – [It goes into feed readers. Great.]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

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FOLKS, DO YOU GET WHY I LOVE HUBDUB SO MUCH AND WHY I LIKE NIGEL ECCLES AND HIS LITTLE MINIONS? THEY UNDERSTAND THE INTERNET TECHNOLOGIES AND THEY DO LISTEN.

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Explainer on Prediction Markets:

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. These event derivative traders feed on the primary indicators —i.e., the primary sources of information. (Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…) Hence, prediction markets are meta forecasting tools.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 60 times out of 100, the favored outcome will occur; and 40 times out of 100, the unfavored outcome will occur.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

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UPDATE: Here’s what we see within Google Reader. As you can plainly see, the InTrade, BetFair and NewsFutures widgets don’t show up.

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UPDATE: Here’s how the HubDub widget appears within Google Reader.

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