Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Information Value of Enterprise Prediction Markets

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Robin Hanson:

[I]nfo value [] is the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. A highly accurate market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

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PREVIOUSLY: See Robin Hanson’s take on Google’s enterprise prediction markets.

PREVIOUSLY: See the research paper on Google’s enterprise prediction markets

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