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WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.
This entry was posted in Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Archives and tagged arbitrage, BetFair, efficiency, Emile Servan-Schreiber, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, market arbitrage, market efficiency, NewsFutures, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson. Bookmark the permalink.
One Response to WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.
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I think Robin might be mis-diagnosing things. I think its just a matter of a lack of capital.
I think a surge of enthusiastic republicans came on Intrade after the conventions, while not trading on the other exchanges.Â
Looking at how trading has spiked on the other exchanges, I think that there most likely are a lot of “Buy Obama on intrade, short on [other exchange]“. But the amount of volume on intrade is huge, it would take a lot of capital to bring prices in line.
But eventualy, capital will build up to pick up all the free money.