Comments on: Is Intrade out on a limb? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21897 Chris F. Masse Thu, 25 Sep 2008 19:15:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21897 http://www.tomorrowmuseum.com/2008/09/25/mccain-plummets-on-right-leaning-intrade/ http://www.tomorrowmuseum.com/2008/09/25/mccain-plummets-on-right-leaning-intrade/

]]> By: Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21891 Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president? | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:28:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21891 [...] - As you remember, Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures believes that it’s a Republican conspiracy all over. [...] [...] – As you remember, Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures believes that it’s a Republican conspiracy all over. [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21861 Chris F. Masse Wed, 24 Sep 2008 13:40:29 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21861 <h3 class="post-title"><a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html" rel="nofollow">Intrade Betting is Suspicious</a></h3> http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html Intrade Betting is Suspicious

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21819 Chris F. Masse Mon, 22 Sep 2008 14:57:48 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21819 See Crampton's comments: http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2008/09/three_new_stocks_at_ipredict.html#comment-488284 See Crampton’s comments:
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2008/09/three_new_stocks_at_ipredict.html#comment-488284

]]> By: InTrade vs. the other prediction exchanges | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21784 InTrade vs. the other prediction exchanges | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 18 Sep 2008 19:31:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21784 [...] Emile Servan-Schreiber’s hypothesis still holds. [...] [...] Emile Servan-Schreiber’s hypothesis still holds. [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21782 Chris F. Masse Thu, 18 Sep 2008 19:14:21 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21782 Justin Wolfers gives his views on the topics discussed by Emile in the post above: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/picking-the-next-president-what-are-the-odds/ http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Press/WSJcolumn/15-Making%20Sense%20of%20Market%20Disagreement.pdf Justin Wolfers gives his views on the topics discussed by Emile in the post above:
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/picking-the-next-president-what-are-the-odds/
http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Press/WSJcolumn/15-Making%20Sense%20of%20Market%20Disagreement.pdf

]]> By: Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.” | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21765 Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.” | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 17 Sep 2008 10:10:34 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21765 [...] Previously: Emile Servan-Schreiber on InTrade’s volatility [...] [...] Previously: Emile Servan-Schreiber on InTrade’s volatility [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21709 Chris F. Masse Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:39:20 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21709 People reading this post will be interested in another post, which prompted a discussion about the mechanism design (MSR) used in most public play-money prediction exchanges and in most enterprise prediction exchanges. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/14/msr-criticism/ People reading this post will be interested in another post, which prompted a discussion about the mechanism design (MSR) used in most public play-money prediction exchanges and in most enterprise prediction exchanges.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/14/msr-criticism/

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21686 Medemi Sat, 13 Sep 2008 13:00:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21686 Perhaps people from the US are inclined to hit the "delete button" whenever we mention betfair <em>because </em>they are not allowed to bet there. That's unfortunate, but just because the betfair management are making a mess of things doesn't mean there's not a lot of value hidden beneath those markets. I'm absolutely convinced that you'll get all the answers to your questions should you take the effort and talk to some of the experienced players there. Unfortunately, you're not allowed to. Blame your Government for that. As an illustration, I still find it a lot easier to make money in the stock market (should I decide to trade it) as opposed to trying to beat my opponents at betting. It's amazing how quick these markets have developed, and the sheer competition that is out there. Science would never have been able to keep up. Maybe that shouldn't be surprising as there is a lot of money to be made. When you're right.    Perhaps people from the US are inclined to hit the “delete button” whenever we mention betfair because they are not allowed to bet there. That’s unfortunate, but just because the betfair management are making a mess of things doesn’t mean there’s not a lot of value hidden beneath those markets. I’m absolutely convinced that you’ll get all the answers to your questions should you take the effort and talk to some of the experienced players there. Unfortunately, you’re not allowed to. Blame your Government for that. As an illustration, I still find it a lot easier to make money in the stock market (should I decide to trade it) as opposed to trying to beat my opponents at betting. It’s amazing how quick these markets have developed, and the sheer competition that is out there. Science would never have been able to keep up. Maybe that shouldn’t be surprising as there is a lot of money to be made. When you’re right. 
 

]]> By: Adonis http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/#comment-21685 Adonis Sat, 13 Sep 2008 11:39:49 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9390#comment-21685 "@ Medemi: I have no idea what the support for your comment is, but I imagine it is mere assertion plus wishful thinking in this case.  No matter, BetFair is closed to US customers.  <strong>It’s safe to say that US citizens have better information about who will win their presidency than Europeans</strong>." I just love to bet against those holding such  assumptive and xenophobic attitudes as shown above in <strong>bold </strong>type! Or perhaps none of us should have a bet, on the basis that we are destined to lose; to the infallibility of American onshore opinion? Absolute poppycock. Adonis “@ Medemi: I have no idea what the support for your comment is, but I imagine it is mere assertion plus wishful thinking in this case.  No matter, BetFair is closed to US customers.  It’s safe to say that US citizens have better information about who will win their presidency than Europeans.”
I just love to bet against those holding such  assumptive and xenophobic attitudes as shown above in bold type!
Or perhaps none of us should have a bet, on the basis that we are destined to lose; to the infallibility of American onshore opinion?
Absolute poppycock.
Adonis

]]>