Comments on: Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/party-nominee-arbitrage/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/party-nominee-arbitrage/#comment-21645 Mike Linksvayer Fri, 12 Sep 2008 01:32:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9362#comment-21645 Jason, true, I'm a fool, or at least lazy. I did have in the back of my mind that I really ought to figure in trading fees before posting.  One could attempt to be a price taker in complementary markets, but that isn't risk free.  Oops.  And the odd pricing has persisted. Chris and Chris ... sad. Jason, true, I’m a fool, or at least lazy. I did have in the back of my mind that I really ought to figure in trading fees before posting.  One could attempt to be a price taker in complementary markets, but that isn’t risk free.  Oops.  And the odd pricing has persisted.

Chris and Chris … sad.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/party-nominee-arbitrage/#comment-21644 Chris F. Masse Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:51:21 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9362#comment-21644 Chris Hibbert is right. BetFair will sense your American IP and send you packing. Chris Hibbert is right. BetFair will sense your American IP and send you packing.

]]> By: Chris Hibbert http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/party-nominee-arbitrage/#comment-21643 Chris Hibbert Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:09:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9362#comment-21643 Betfair doesn't want you as a customer, Mike.  They are rightly concerned about the risks of providing services to Americans.  If you figure out how to defeat their defenses, post about it anonymously on this blog.  The reason TradeSports/InTrade has so much of the American market is that everyone else is afraid to enter. Betfair doesn’t want you as a customer, Mike.  They are rightly concerned about the risks of providing services to Americans.  If you figure out how to defeat their defenses, post about it anonymously on this blog.  The reason TradeSports/InTrade has so much of the American market is that everyone else is afraid to enter.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/party-nominee-arbitrage/#comment-21642 Jason Ruspini Thu, 11 Sep 2008 23:17:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9362#comment-21642 I don't see an arbitrage opportunity on Intrade. On the Dem side, you have to pay 2% (.5%+.5% entry +1% settlement) in commissions to capture the 1.8%. On the GOP side, you have to pay 2% to capture 0.5%. I don’t see an arbitrage opportunity on Intrade. On the Dem side, you have to pay 2% (.5%+.5% entry +1% settlement) in commissions to capture the 1.8%. On the GOP side, you have to pay 2% to capture 0.5%.

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/party-nominee-arbitrage/#comment-21627 Mike Linksvayer Thu, 11 Sep 2008 17:55:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9362#comment-21627 Nigel, very interesting. I should follow and open an account at Betfair... Nigel, very interesting. I should follow and open an account at Betfair…

]]> By: Nigel Eccles http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/party-nominee-arbitrage/#comment-21626 Nigel Eccles Thu, 11 Sep 2008 17:43:50 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9362#comment-21626 I would have thought the bigger opportunity was arb'ing between Intrade and Betfair. Betfair currently has Obama trading at 55% (as do most UK bookmakers). I would have thought the bigger opportunity was arb’ing between Intrade and Betfair. Betfair currently has Obama trading at 55% (as do most UK bookmakers).

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