Multi-millionaire, Republican, professor of economics Greg Mankiw uses Jason Ruspini’s tax prediction markets at InTrade to assess the probability that a hypothetical John McCain presidency starting in 2009 assumes a raise in federal taxes.

Posted on September 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Marginal Revolution

P(tax hike / McCain) = 74%.

APPENDIX: Robin Hanson does not know yet who he is going to vote for, in November 2008… and feels that no scholar can help him.

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle

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This entry was posted in Analysis (Data), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics and tagged 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, federal taxes, Greg Mankiw, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Politics, prediction markets, tax hike, tax prediction markets, tax raise, US congressional elections, US elections, US elections prediction, US politics, US presidential elections, US taxes prediction. Bookmark the permalink.

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