Comments on: The question that might well embarass David Pennock and Lance Fortnow http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-prediction-markets-electoral-college/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-prediction-markets-electoral-college/#comment-21496 State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG Fri, 05 Sep 2008 08:30:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8918#comment-21496 [...] PS: The discussion about this post goes on in the comment area of another post. [...] [...] PS: The discussion about this post goes on in the comment area of another post. [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-prediction-markets-electoral-college/#comment-21495 Chris F. Masse Fri, 05 Sep 2008 08:26:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8918#comment-21495 I agree with all that, Doctor Michael, but I am trying to go beyond that. I am trying to understand what could be a good prediction market analysis (see what Lance Fortnow's take on the electoral college prediction markets), <strong>and what to do with that analysis, after that. </strong>I'll try to ask questions differently, next time.<strong></strong> I agree with all that, Doctor Michael, but I am trying to go beyond that. I am trying to understand what could be a good prediction market analysis (see what Lance Fortnow’s take on the electoral college prediction markets), and what to do with that analysis, after that.
I’ll try to ask questions differently, next time.

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-prediction-markets-electoral-college/#comment-21493 Michael Giberson Fri, 05 Sep 2008 04:07:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8918#comment-21493 Chris, I don't get why you seem to be puzzling over the relationships between polls and prediction markets, since it seemed to me that you already had a good understanding.  Namely, that the prediction markets feed on the polls <em>and</em> on other news, data, rumor and what have you. Traders are omnivorous, as a group they seek out and digest a wide range of information.  Polls form some of the best material to feed on, especially if the poll was conducted well and the trader understands the nature of the poll.  (For example, not every poll is an attempt to predict an election -- a poll may wish to survey a broad range of citizens, not just likely voters. A smart trader would want to sort out these details before acting on the poll results.) But I'm sure I've formed my view on the matter by reading you early in the 2008 primary season, when I decided that you had the right idea. Have you changed your mind (or are you just acting the provocateur)? Chris, I don’t get why you seem to be puzzling over the relationships between polls and prediction markets, since it seemed to me that you already had a good understanding.  Namely, that the prediction markets feed on the polls and on other news, data, rumor and what have you.

Traders are omnivorous, as a group they seek out and digest a wide range of information.  Polls form some of the best material to feed on, especially if the poll was conducted well and the trader understands the nature of the poll.  (For example, not every poll is an attempt to predict an election — a poll may wish to survey a broad range of citizens, not just likely voters. A smart trader would want to sort out these details before acting on the poll results.)

But I’m sure I’ve formed my view on the matter by reading you early in the 2008 primary season, when I decided that you had the right idea. Have you changed your mind (or are you just acting the provocateur)?

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-prediction-markets-electoral-college/#comment-21489 Chris F. Masse Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:41:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8918#comment-21489 Does this performance in accuracy comes from the days just before Election Day? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/ If yes, then why should we ask the public to look at the prediction markets in early September? We should tell them to take a look at the end of October, only. Does this performance in accuracy comes from the days just before Election Day?
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/
If yes, then why should we ask the public to look at the prediction markets in early September? We should tell them to take a look at the end of October, only.

]]> By: David Pennock http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-prediction-markets-electoral-college/#comment-21485 David Pennock Thu, 04 Sep 2008 20:06:01 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8918#comment-21485 In the recent past, the accuracy of electoralmarkets.com (meaning TradeSports/InTrade) has been greater than electoral-vote.com. In the recent past, the accuracy of electoralmarkets.com (meaning TradeSports/InTrade) has been greater than electoral-vote.com.

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