Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
What is the usefulness of http://electoralmarkets.com/ as compared to the usefulness of http://www.electoral-vote.com/ ??
NEXT: Polls versus Prediction Markets — Lance Fortnow Edition
You can follow all the replies to this entry through the comments feed.
Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
Jason Ruspini on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.Max Keiser on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.Jason Ruspini on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
Paul Hewitt on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
Chris F. Masse on We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.Chris F. Masse on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Chris F. Masse on “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”
In the recent past, the accuracy of electoralmarkets.com (meaning TradeSports/InTrade) has been greater than electoral-vote.com.
Does this performance in accuracy comes from the days just before Election Day?
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/
If yes, then why should we ask the public to look at the prediction markets in early September? We should tell them to take a look at the end of October, only.
Chris, I don’t get why you seem to be puzzling over the relationships between polls and prediction markets, since it seemed to me that you already had a good understanding. Namely, that the prediction markets feed on the polls and on other news, data, rumor and what have you.
Traders are omnivorous, as a group they seek out and digest a wide range of information. Polls form some of the best material to feed on, especially if the poll was conducted well and the trader understands the nature of the poll. (For example, not every poll is an attempt to predict an election — a poll may wish to survey a broad range of citizens, not just likely voters. A smart trader would want to sort out these details before acting on the poll results.)
But I’m sure I’ve formed my view on the matter by reading you early in the 2008 primary season, when I decided that you had the right idea. Have you changed your mind (or are you just acting the provocateur)?
I agree with all that, Doctor Michael, but I am trying to go beyond that. I am trying to understand what could be a good prediction market analysis (see what Lance Fortnow’s take on the electoral college prediction markets), and what to do with that analysis, after that.
I’ll try to ask questions differently, next time.