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Prices as Probabilities in Election Markets – 2007 presentation by Lance Fortnow
UPDATE: Follow up here.
Polls versus Prediction Markets — Lance Fortnow Edition
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- Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
- Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
- Paul Hewitt on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
- Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”