Comments on: New Yahoo! News election dashboard http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: New Yahoo! News election dashboard: Oddhead Blog: Prediction Markets, Gambling, Electronic Commerce, Artificial Intelligence: David Pennock: Yahoo! Research http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21525 New Yahoo! News election dashboard: Oddhead Blog: Prediction Markets, Gambling, Electronic Commerce, Artificial Intelligence: David Pennock: Yahoo! Research Sat, 06 Sep 2008 16:37:13 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21525 [...] New Yahoo! News election dashboard By David Pennock Cross-posted on midasoracle.org [...] [...] New Yahoo! News election dashboard By David Pennock Cross-posted on midasoracle.org [...]

]]> By: David Pennock http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21490 David Pennock Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:43:02 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21490 I would guess that "electoral college prediction markets" should be just as good as "election prediction markets", given the same level of liquidity. As long as the markets get sufficient liquidity I would expect them to perform fairly well. I personally trust electoral markets over electoral polls. This is my opinion and an unscientific statement. For a scientific statement we will need many decades of election outcomes. I would guess that “electoral college prediction markets” should be just as good as “election prediction markets”, given the same level of liquidity. As long as the markets get sufficient liquidity I would expect them to perform fairly well. I personally trust electoral markets over electoral polls. This is my opinion and an unscientific statement. For a scientific statement we will need many decades of election outcomes.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21465 Chris F. Masse Thu, 04 Sep 2008 01:12:04 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21465 "I would let John Delaney float any event derivatives he wants." Just an aside, but even though I agree with Emile Servan-Schreiber's bad view of the VP prediction markets, I strongly disagree with him in his refusal to run many of them. (NewsFutures had one, if my memory is correct.) I would let traders have their way. All the questions I am asking are about the forecasting dimension and about the responsibility of what I call "prediction market analysts". And when Lance Fortnow asked me what the hell is a "prediction market analyst", I answered that that's the kind of guy who gives the kind of analysis he gave me about the electoral college prediction markets. :-D http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/ 15 comments on this post already, great. Polémiques mean a high number of pageviews. “I would let John Delaney float any event derivatives he wants.”
Just an aside, but even though I agree with Emile Servan-Schreiber’s bad view of the VP prediction markets, I strongly disagree with him in his refusal to run many of them. (NewsFutures had one, if my memory is correct.) I would let traders have their way.
All the questions I am asking are about the forecasting dimension and about the responsibility of what I call “prediction market analysts”. And when Lance Fortnow asked me what the hell is a “prediction market analyst”, I answered that that’s the kind of guy who gives the kind of analysis he gave me about the electoral college prediction markets. :-D
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/
15 comments on this post already, great. Polémiques mean a high number of pageviews.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21464 Chris F. Masse Thu, 04 Sep 2008 01:06:25 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21464 You are wrong. There are two dimensions. The forecasting dimension and the betting dimension. I was of course not talking about the betting dimension. I would let John Delaney float any event derivatives he wants. I was talking about us, people who focus on the probabilistic predictions. How should we rate the electoral college prediction markets? Lance Fortnow has given one point: there are more useful than the state polls in the days just before Election Day (but not on Election Day itself). http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/ We should make an analysis for each prediction market out there. If you don't agree with that, we'll do it without you. :-D You are wrong. There are two dimensions. The forecasting dimension and the betting dimension. I was of course not talking about the betting dimension. I would let John Delaney float any event derivatives he wants.
I was talking about us, people who focus on the probabilistic predictions. How should we rate the electoral college prediction markets? Lance Fortnow has given one point: there are more useful than the state polls in the days just before Election Day (but not on Election Day itself).
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/
We should make an analysis for each prediction market out there. If you don’t agree with that, we’ll do it without you. :-D

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21463 Michael Giberson Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:52:34 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21463 Re: "Are we sure that the public really need electoral college prediction markets?" No one really needs to ask or answer that kind of question anymore than anyone needs to ask or answer "Are we sure that the public really needs chocolate milkshakes?" The interesting questions seem to me to be (a) whether an exchange can profitably offer these kinds of prediction markets, (b) what uses are there for these kinds of markets, and (c) what market format works best. Re: “Are we sure that the public really need electoral college prediction markets?”

No one really needs to ask or answer that kind of question anymore than anyone needs to ask or answer “Are we sure that the public really needs chocolate milkshakes?”

The interesting questions seem to me to be (a) whether an exchange can profitably offer these kinds of prediction markets, (b) what uses are there for these kinds of markets, and (c) what market format works best.

]]> By: State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21460 State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 03 Sep 2008 22:16:56 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21460 [...] I have (at least) one answer to my series of provocative questions: Electoral college prediction markets are more useful than the state polls towards the very end of [...] [...] I have (at least) one answer to my series of provocative questions: Electoral college prediction markets are more useful than the state polls towards the very end of [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21459 Chris F. Masse Wed, 03 Sep 2008 21:41:23 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21459 Let's put that issue under another angle. If the prediction markets reflect the primary indicators, then shouldn't we search hard for great prediction markets that reflect <strong>many</strong> different primary indicators, as opposed to just one (e.g., a state poll). Shouldn't we search for such <strong>rare</strong> situations where the situation is really <strong>complicated</strong>, and it's convenient to trust a prediction market as opposed to one expert or a group of experts? Shouldn't we rate the prediction markets? Shouldn't we search harder for truly great and useful prediction markets? Are we sure that the public really need electoral college prediction markets? Let’s put that issue under another angle.
If the prediction markets reflect the primary indicators, then shouldn’t we search hard for great prediction markets that reflect many different primary indicators, as opposed to just one (e.g., a state poll). Shouldn’t we search for such rare situations where the situation is really complicated, and it’s convenient to trust a prediction market as opposed to one expert or a group of experts?
Shouldn’t we rate the prediction markets?
Shouldn’t we search harder for truly great and useful prediction markets?
Are we sure that the public really need electoral college prediction markets?

]]> By: Polls versus Prediction Markets — Lance Fortnow Edition | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21458 Polls versus Prediction Markets — Lance Fortnow Edition | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 03 Sep 2008 21:38:38 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21458 [...] Prices as Probabilities in Election Markets - 2007 presentation by Lance Fortnow Discussion continues here…. [...] [...] Prices as Probabilities in Election Markets – 2007 presentation by Lance Fortnow Discussion continues here…. [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21457 Chris F. Masse Wed, 03 Sep 2008 21:31:56 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21457 Lance Fortnow says on his slides that the polls might sometimes be "harder" to interpret than the prediction markets. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/polls-prediction-markets-2/ I have other views. Wouldn't the electoral college prediction markets reflect the state polls? And if that's the case, then why should we ask the public to look at the electoral college prediction markets in lieu of or as opposed to the state polls? I can put my question in another way. If there are "good" and "bad" prediction markets, would you list the electoral college prediction markets among the best or the worst prediction markets? (Some might list the VP prediction markets among the worst prediction markets, for instance.) Lance Fortnow says on his slides that the polls might sometimes be “harder” to interpret than the prediction markets.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/polls-prediction-markets-2/
I have other views. Wouldn’t the electoral college prediction markets reflect the state polls? And if that’s the case, then why should we ask the public to look at the electoral college prediction markets in lieu of or as opposed to the state polls?
I can put my question in another way. If there are “good” and “bad” prediction markets, would you list the electoral college prediction markets among the best or the worst prediction markets?
(Some might list the VP prediction markets among the worst prediction markets, for instance.)

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/new-yahoo-news-election-dashboard/#comment-21454 Chris F. Masse Wed, 03 Sep 2008 19:22:13 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8859#comment-21454 David Pennock, now you understand why I propel this guy as "chairman of the scientific advisory board". http://www.midasoracle.org/mission/ He is good and understand me well. Plus, he is funny like hell in private. I hope you two guys will meet one day. David Pennock, now you understand why I propel this guy as “chairman of the scientific advisory board”.
http://www.midasoracle.org/mission/
He is good and understand me well.
Plus, he is funny like hell in private.
I hope you two guys will meet one day.

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