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	<title>Comments on: Barack Obama + Joe Biden &#8212; THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT&#8230; triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).</title>
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	<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/23/barack-obama-joe-biden-the-prediction-markets-nailed-it-triple-alas-for-my-reputation-as-a-world-wide-prediction-market-pundit-and-for-the-debate-on-the-different-quality-of-the-various-prim/</link>
	<description>Prediction Markets For All</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:45:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Medemi</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/23/barack-obama-joe-biden-the-prediction-markets-nailed-it-triple-alas-for-my-reputation-as-a-world-wide-prediction-market-pundit-and-for-the-debate-on-the-different-quality-of-the-various-prim/#comment-21240</link>
		<dc:creator>Medemi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:38:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8483#comment-21240</guid>
		<description>I'm not a huge fan of your leading indicator theory, Chris. But I also can't see why one result should make you feel desperate about your beliefs. I get the impression your gut feeling is telling you you are missing something, even though you wish to remain stubborn. I can't see why you would want to be, because as caveat bettor points out, there is more power within prediction markets if we can discard leading indicators.

Personally, I find the market on the Eurovision Song Contest fascinating. The leading indicators suck, and the bookmakers pricing up the market have no other option but to follow the prediction market, which astonishingly is pretty accurate IMO. I KNOW, there are folks out there who do their homework. And they do it thoroughly.

Should you want to try a different approach, let me offer a suggestion. To get you started :
http://www.collectivewisdominitiative.org/papers/kenny_science.htm#working

I haven't read it myself (I really should), but nevertheless some quotes to warm you up :

&lt;em&gt;"Facilitated Learning and Creative Synchronicity.&lt;a&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Sheldrake has conducted a number of experiments, which seem to            indicate that morphic resonance and field effects may facilitate faster            and easier learning by individuals and groups who attempt to learn a            skill or behavior after an individual or group in the same species initially            does so. "&lt;/em&gt;
That's another reason why we can't have insiders spoiling our markets. For those who are interested in the truth, that is. (PMSL)

This is an interesting line, regarding the working definition of "collective consciousness" :

"&lt;em&gt;A mode of awareness, in which we directly experience, through              an intuitive felt-sense, our union with the interconnected wholeness              of life, and recognize ourselves in others. Our identity extends beyond              our individual boundary and embraces the collective, through a free              and conscious act of identification, rather than through definition              by convention or external authority.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Once this awareness develops, individuals – because they now            perceive themselves as mutually interdependent parts of a larger whole            -- develop an authentic, abiding and primary concern and care for common            good and for the well being, health and productive functioning of the            communities to which they belong (including organizations and, eventually,            the global community)."&lt;/em&gt;
Well, it is Sunday.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not a huge fan of your leading indicator theory, Chris. But I also can&#8217;t see why one result should make you feel desperate about your beliefs. I get the impression your gut feeling is telling you you are missing something, even though you wish to remain stubborn. I can&#8217;t see why you would want to be, because as caveat bettor points out, there is more power within prediction markets if we can discard leading indicators.</p>
<p>Personally, I find the market on the Eurovision Song Contest fascinating. The leading indicators suck, and the bookmakers pricing up the market have no other option but to follow the prediction market, which astonishingly is pretty accurate IMO. I KNOW, there are folks out there who do their homework. And they do it thoroughly.</p>
<p>Should you want to try a different approach, let me offer a suggestion. To get you started :<br />
<a href="http://www.collectivewisdominitiative.org/papers/kenny_science.htm#working" rel="nofollow">http://www.collectivewisdomini.....tm#working</a></p>
<p>I haven&#8217;t read it myself (I really should), but nevertheless some quotes to warm you up :</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Facilitated Learning and Creative Synchronicity.<a></a> Sheldrake has conducted a number of experiments, which seem to            indicate that morphic resonance and field effects may facilitate faster            and easier learning by individuals and groups who attempt to learn a            skill or behavior after an individual or group in the same species initially            does so. &#8220;</em><br />
That&#8217;s another reason why we can&#8217;t have insiders spoiling our markets. For those who are interested in the truth, that is. (PMSL)</p>
<p>This is an interesting line, regarding the working definition of &#8220;collective consciousness&#8221; :</p>
<p>&#8220;<em>A mode of awareness, in which we directly experience, through              an intuitive felt-sense, our union with the interconnected wholeness              of life, and recognize ourselves in others. Our identity extends beyond              our individual boundary and embraces the collective, through a free              and conscious act of identification, rather than through definition              by convention or external authority.</em></p>
<blockquote></blockquote>
<p><em>Once this awareness develops, individuals – because they now            perceive themselves as mutually interdependent parts of a larger whole            &#8212; develop an authentic, abiding and primary concern and care for common            good and for the well being, health and productive functioning of the            communities to which they belong (including organizations and, eventually,            the global community).&#8221;</em><br />
Well, it is Sunday.</p>
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		<title>By: Caveat Bettor</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/23/barack-obama-joe-biden-the-prediction-markets-nailed-it-triple-alas-for-my-reputation-as-a-world-wide-prediction-market-pundit-and-for-the-debate-on-the-different-quality-of-the-various-prim/#comment-21239</link>
		<dc:creator>Caveat Bettor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2008 20:18:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8483#comment-21239</guid>
		<description>Yes, I lost some dough on this VP trade.

But I my faith in prediction markets has been vindicated.  Again.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, I lost some dough on this VP trade.</p>
<p>But I my faith in prediction markets has been vindicated.  Again.</p>
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