Comments on: While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/ Prediction Markets For All Fri, 09 Jan 2009 04:37:26 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21375 Medemi Sun, 31 Aug 2008 11:29:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21375 I don't get your point, Chris. If you're saying the VP-candidate markets are not representative of the predictability of prediction markets, then I can see what you mean. If you're saying there's more integrity in betting on a soccer match (and therefore punters need to be warned), I can also agree with that. But I thought this was about fulfilling the traders needs, and the predictability aspect comes second. Also, when you're going to focus on the markets aggregating rumors, you're getting close to issues like market manipulation and insider trading. I haven't heard you talk about them and how we should deal with it. That would be the broad approach IMO, and keep you from having to evaluate specific markets again and again. With zero results. I don’t get your point, Chris.

If you’re saying the VP-candidate markets are not representative of the predictability of prediction markets, then I can see what you mean. If you’re saying there’s more integrity in betting on a soccer match (and therefore punters need to be warned), I can also agree with that.
But I thought this was about fulfilling the traders needs, and the predictability aspect comes second.
Also, when you’re going to focus on the markets aggregating rumors, you’re getting close to issues like market manipulation and insider trading. I haven’t heard you talk about them and how we should deal with it. That would be the broad approach IMO, and keep you from having to evaluate specific markets again and again. With zero results.

]]> By: Paul Kedrosky … sucks. — Plus, Jason Trost is bashing InTrade and BetFair in order to boost his startup, Smarkets. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21371 Paul Kedrosky … sucks. — Plus, Jason Trost is bashing InTrade and BetFair in order to boost his startup, Smarkets. | Midas Oracle .ORG Sun, 31 Aug 2008 09:03:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21371 [...] the way, I was pleased to see (elsewhere) that Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures has the same (bad) opinion about those VP prediction markets as I do. I will index Emile in this file, next week. Emile is a smart and experienced man, and we [...] [...] the way, I was pleased to see (elsewhere) that Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures has the same (bad) opinion about those VP prediction markets as I do. I will index Emile in this file, next week. Emile is a smart and experienced man, and we [...]

]]> By: Mitt Romney will be the Republican vice presidential nominee. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21322 Mitt Romney will be the Republican vice presidential nominee. | Midas Oracle .ORG Fri, 29 Aug 2008 13:09:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21322 [...] I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets. [...] [...] I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets. [...]

]]> By: The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21237 The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. | Midas Oracle .ORG Sun, 24 Aug 2008 18:10:39 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21237 [...] Bo Cowgill, back in May 2008 (when I started to act as a prophet of doom): [...] [...] Bo Cowgill, back in May 2008 (when I started to act as a prophet of doom): [...]

]]> By: Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21219 Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). | Midas Oracle .ORG Sat, 23 Aug 2008 09:12:29 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21219 [...] have over-estimated the secretiveness of Barack Obama’s decision process. The chart above [...] [...] have over-estimated the secretiveness of Barack Obama’s decision process. The chart above [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21209 Chris F. Masse Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:26:14 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21209 The prediction markets are <strong>not</strong> worse than other mechanism... But I don't want any mechanism to aggregate rumors. That's the point. The prediction markets are not worse than other mechanism… But I don’t want any mechanism to aggregate rumors. That’s the point.

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21207 Caveat Bettor Fri, 22 Aug 2008 15:57:39 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21207 I concede that VP prediction markets will be less accurate than other markets which reflect better information (and liquidity). But the VP prediction markets are worse than what other mechanism, exactly?  I wonder if any of these eminent naysayers can answer me that? I concede that VP prediction markets will be less accurate than other markets which reflect better information (and liquidity).

But the VP prediction markets are worse than what other mechanism, exactly?  I wonder if any of these eminent naysayers can answer me that?

]]> By: ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/22/vp-prediction-markets-2/#comment-21206 ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks. | Midas Oracle .ORG Fri, 22 Aug 2008 10:38:26 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8457#comment-21206 [...] NEXT: While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa .... [...] [...] NEXT: While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa …. [...]

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