Comments on: Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. — Might be Evan Bayh. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/ Prediction Markets For All Fri, 09 Jan 2009 03:06:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21213 Jason Ruspini Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:22:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21213 There is a lot of truth to that medemi and there is something rather different that I am working on with taxes There is a lot of truth to that medemi and there is something rather different that I am working on with taxes

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21202 Medemi Fri, 22 Aug 2008 03:18:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21202 I was hoping you would get into a fight, maybe we could even have one of those old nonsensical debates about the concept of value... Seriously, I don't think the success of sports betting is because it is just that, sports. It's what keeps people occupied. Look at the success of Big Brother betting in the UK. A nonsense market, yet very succesful from a liquidity point of view. So, I guess tax is out Jason. I mean, people in the US should hedge against future tax hikes :-D but it is not what keeps them occupied at the moment. That also makes your leading indicator theory look a bit wobbly, Chris. :-) Maybe I should tell them at Intrade, but alas, I can't make suggestions on their forum. Maybe the moderator took a long holiday. I was hoping you would get into a fight, maybe we could even have one of those old nonsensical debates about the concept of value…

Seriously, I don’t think the success of sports betting is because it is just that, sports. It’s what keeps people occupied.
Look at the success of Big Brother betting in the UK. A nonsense market, yet very succesful from a liquidity point of view.

So, I guess tax is out Jason. I mean, people in the US should hedge against future tax hikes :-D but it is not what keeps them occupied at the moment.
That also makes your leading indicator theory look a bit wobbly, Chris. :-)

Maybe I should tell them at Intrade, but alas, I can’t make suggestions on their forum. Maybe the moderator took a long holiday.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21200 Chris F. Masse Thu, 21 Aug 2008 23:43:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21200 Understood, mister Jason. :-D Understood, mister Jason. :-D

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21199 Medemi Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:30:22 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21199 Politics is boring, but then I find sports betting boring as well. These 2 areas attract the most traders though, probably because traders are confronted with it on a daily basis through the media, at least in the US. There should be some room for betting on ads, movies, music. Intrade is boring, and it looks like Hubdub got it right. Politics is boring, but then I find sports betting boring as well. These 2 areas attract the most traders though, probably because traders are confronted with it on a daily basis through the media, at least in the US.

There should be some room for betting on ads, movies, music.
Intrade is boring, and it looks like Hubdub got it right.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21198 Jason Ruspini Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:56:20 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21198 Chris, What are you talking about? Did I say she was in the top 4? I said that I thought shorting her was the surest thing on the board - that's all. Or you can gamble based on the last article you read, how much coffee or wine you've had that day, the allure of hitting your longshot, etc. Chris, What are you talking about? Did I say she was in the top 4? I said that I thought shorting her was the surest thing on the board - that’s all. Or you can gamble based on the last article you read, how much coffee or wine you’ve had that day, the allure of hitting your longshot, etc.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21197 Chris F. Masse Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:28:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21197 Medemi, yes, that was too much pressure on the SQL server, alas. By the way, as you know, now only registered members can comment ---so as to discard spammers, and to get rid of the anti-spam plugins that bothered our registered members. It's easy for people to register themselves. Then, they can comment. - Cav, nobody knows anything, and the VP prediction markets are stochastic. I go directly to the primary indicators. Kathleen Sebelius is the best VP candidate, I believe. What a great woman. And Barack Obama needs to have the Hillary Clinton voters behind him. But that's a plus. Her main thing is that she has governmental experience, and she is bipartisan. - Jason, I agree with your first paragraph. As for Hillary Clinton, you are so behind the curve, she is not in the top 4 ---mainly due to her (incontrollable, by essence, as a former Prez) husband. Medemi, yes, that was too much pressure on the SQL server, alas.
By the way, as you know, now only registered members can comment —so as to discard spammers, and to get rid of the anti-spam plugins that bothered our registered members.
It’s easy for people to register themselves. Then, they can comment.
-
Cav, nobody knows anything, and the VP prediction markets are stochastic. I go directly to the primary indicators.
Kathleen Sebelius is the best VP candidate, I believe. What a great woman. And Barack Obama needs to have the Hillary Clinton voters behind him. But that’s a plus. Her main thing is that she has governmental experience, and she is bipartisan.
-
Jason, I agree with your first paragraph.
As for Hillary Clinton, you are so behind the curve, she is not in the top 4 —mainly due to her (incontrollable, by essence, as a former Prez) husband.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21195 Jason Ruspini Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:48:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21195 I think the question is what is your edge playing in these markets? We know this is basically a mug's game with little information out there, and is your ability to process the information that everyone already has such as who will balance the ticket in what way and who is from which battleground state etc. that superior? The markets clearly are just being thrashed around day-to-day based on tea-reading. Can't you hear Obama smugly laughing at the media, the bloggers and traders? . If you put a gun to my head though and I had to make a trade, short Clinton at 12 here. I don't buy the party unity argument and Clinton's inability to defeat Obama given her advantages coming into the primaries speaks of a profound dislike of her that would be foolish to tangle with. I think the question is what is your edge playing in these markets? We know this is basically a mug’s game with little information out there, and is your ability to process the information that everyone already has such as who will balance the ticket in what way and who is from which battleground state etc. that superior? The markets clearly are just being thrashed around day-to-day based on tea-reading. Can’t you hear Obama smugly laughing at the media, the bloggers and traders?
.
If you put a gun to my head though and I had to make a trade, short Clinton at 12 here. I don’t buy the party unity argument and Clinton’s inability to defeat Obama given her advantages coming into the primaries speaks of a profound dislike of her that would be foolish to tangle with.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21194 Medemi Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:47:25 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21194 Chris, what happened to the "recent discussions" section, did you remove it ? Chris, what happened to the “recent discussions” section, did you remove it ?

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/21/vp-hints/#comment-21193 Caveat Bettor Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:26:28 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8442#comment-21193 In making his VP observations while simultaneously condemning any trading in the prediction markets, Chris Masse reverts to the primeval days of punditry and polls. I'm conflicted about Bayh, primarily because of his neighbor-state status. Of course Arkansas and Tennessee are adjoining too, and that didn't hurt the last Dem to occupy the White House. In making his VP observations while simultaneously condemning any trading in the prediction markets, Chris Masse reverts to the primeval days of punditry and polls.

I’m conflicted about Bayh, primarily because of his neighbor-state status. Of course Arkansas and Tennessee are adjoining too, and that didn’t hurt the last Dem to occupy the White House.

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