Max Keiser says on Iranian TV that HubDub’s play-money prediction market on oil price has more predictive power than the oil derivative markets (oil futures markets).
Chris F. Masse August 18th, 2008
Sounds like a stretch, at first glance, but listen to his argument, first, before you judge it.
Good plug of HubDub inside an economic analysis segment.
- Exchanges & Markets , Finance , Market Prices & Probabilities , The Global Economy
- Comments(1)
Hubdub doesn’t specify what market it settles on so it is pretty hard to say that it is more accurate. I guess it would settle on WTI crude, which would be subject to the same pressures Max carps on. The futures converge with WTI but don’t claim to directly predict December spot here in August — and that is the only real way that these play-money markets can be said to be more predictive than the futures right now.