Comments on: Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/05/subsidizing-conditional-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/05/subsidizing-conditional-prediction-markets/#comment-21087 Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG Sun, 10 Aug 2008 20:15:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8044#comment-21087 [...] Another false good idea from Robin Hanson. [...] [...] Another false good idea from Robin Hanson. [...]

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/05/subsidizing-conditional-prediction-markets/#comment-21039 Jason Ruspini Thu, 07 Aug 2008 23:59:22 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8044#comment-21039 I don't think these subsidies need to be so expensive.  Since the sponsor is presumably interested in the question, they should have a pretty good idea where the market should open in many cases.  If they are really unsure of the initial price, they could begin with a small trade size (looser market) and increase it as the market tells them where the price should generally be.  They could also manually move the bid/ask if an easily interpretable event occurs (like right now) instead of waiting to give away money.  Obviously you don't want to "pollute" the price too much, but there's little reason to go completely autopilot and pay for what you already know. . Also I think Google should stick to non-space-travel projects for now. ha I don’t think these subsidies need to be so expensive.  Since the sponsor is presumably interested in the question, they should have a pretty good idea where the market should open in many cases.  If they are really unsure of the initial price, they could begin with a small trade size (looser market) and increase it as the market tells them where the price should generally be.  They could also manually move the bid/ask if an easily interpretable event occurs (like right now) instead of waiting to give away money.  Obviously you don’t want to “pollute” the price too much, but there’s little reason to go completely autopilot and pay for what you already know.
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Also I think Google should stick to non-space-travel projects for now. ha

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