Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
Chris F. Masse August 2nd, 2008
Announcing the “Horizon 2015″ group.
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The year 2008 in the field of prediction markets will be marked by these 4 events:
- The CFTC will soon announce that InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair are still unwelcomed in the United States of America.
- The prediction market academics (with some “notable exceptions“) are all ready to feed on the InTrade trading data, but won’t raise their little finger to help InTrade vis-a-vis the CFTC. (Some will even pen a letter to the CFTC warning them against the for-profit, commercial prediction markets “masquerading” the real thing, in their view.)
- The Prediction Market Industry Association (whose website still features their initial P.R. output) has proved to be a fake organization run by a bunch of incapables.
- For multiple reasons, the media and bloggers are still reluctant to quote prediction market prices, to publish dynamic charts, to deep-link to the real-money prediction markets, and to include economic science-based betting recommendations in their journalistic output.
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We acknowledge this hard and unfortunate reality.
We are going to change that reality in the coming decades, thanks to our plain hard lobbying work.
To do just that, we can’t count on our good friends the academics —who signed Bob’s sterile and puritan petition.
The long-term strategy is to go after the people —exposing them, in practical terms, with the social utility of the prediction markets.
The way to do that is to publish popular stories, on topics of their interest (e.g., sports) —centered around the information generated by the prediction markets.
Money is of the essence.
Hence, the quest for allies —beyond the prediction exchanges.
The rest of the plan should remain under the thick veil of secrecy, as it is explained below.
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- The Scientific Advisory Board is chaired by professor Michael Giberson. The Scientific Advisory Board of Midas Oracle is an international network of researchers in the field of economics who have agreed to give the Editorial Board ofMidas Oracle meaningful help in better understanding the prediction markets thru the economic lens.
- The Horizon 2015 Board gathers a group of decision makers dedicated to the execution of a couple of big, long-term strategic goals aiming at popularizing the public, real-money and play-money prediction markets. Our mission statement and actions won’t be detailed in public. The names of the decision makers who support our goals and actions won’t be listed anywhere, so as to avoid attracting business people who would join this group only in order to spice up their marketing literature.
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- cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-|
- chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|
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on 
How did we overcome racism ?
How did we legalize soft drugs ?
How did we legalize abortion ?
How did we legalize euthanasia ?
How did we overcome political correctness ?
How will we break down the barriers of prediction markets ?
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By opening up the debate. Here, in the mainstream media, on the streets.
Forget about scientists and academics, who’s primary objective is to show others their theory is the right one. Get people thinking, talking, exchanging ideas. Use the information gathering process we see within prediction markets to tear down the walls from the outside.
We have now more comments on Midas Oracle than posts, which I consider to be progress. But most of the time it seems like I’m the only one who is talking. We need less posts and more opinion.
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Also make sure you have a product you can sell to a wide audience. This means we should shine a light on the dark side of prediction markets from the start so as to avoid it stabbing us in the back. Keep out insider trading and market manipulation and regulate it from the top. The CFTC is our friend. We should make it our friend because they are an essential piece of the puzzle. The rest is up to us. Prediction markets will come in all their glory, I’m sure of it.
Some day I will shut up.
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Show someone a picture on a monitor that gradually changes, and he will not notice it. Put a frog in a can of water, slowly increase the temperature, and the frog will not move and eventually die. We don’t react to slow changes in our environment. Even though a lot is being done about it, the trafic jams get worse every year here. It has been said we need a disastrous day mid winter where the whole country gets stuck for an entire day. Maybe even some people who freeze to death. This will get all involved parties to the table and get the debate going.
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Maybe we need a major event with prediction markets as well. But the problem is we probably can’t prove afterwards that the prediction market on Obama becoming president for instance was kicking ass. It’s a bit retarded anyway, if we are aware that we don’t react to slow changes in our environment, to not do something with that information. In other words, wake the hell up.
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Personally, I would like to see a real-money prediction market on the number of gambling addicts in the UK two or three years from now, reaching the target of 350,000 assuming the current number is 250,000.
This prediction market will give us a reliable indicator of what is ahead of us, measure the effect of increased advertising of betting exchanges, and give us the opportunity to react proactively to an increased risk. Because the Gambling Commission will not do another evaluation on this for some years to come. Without a prediction market we don’t know what’s ahead of us, we can only guess, and risk having to deal with a major problem later on. Proactively you say ? our government policies ? That’ll be a new one.
And, should anyone be of the opinion that people shouldn’t gamble on a market that is helpful in trying to keep the number of gambling addicts down, then you can present your view below.
@medemi: I am all for a digital caldron with traders, economists, bloggers, commenters, the regulators, etc.
@Medemi: “Put a frog in a can of water, slowly increase the temperature, and the frog will not move and eventually die.” That is an urban myth that has been debunked.
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I agree with your proposal.
That is an urban myth that has been debunked
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I have evidence - hard scientific facts.
The story’s origins are rooted in nineteenth-century physiological literature. An article co-written by G. Stanley Hall from 1887 indicates that many experiments were performed on frogs in the 1870s and 1880s for the purposes of determining how reactive their nervous systems were to various types of stimuli, with temperature change being one of these. One source from 1897 lists an experiment done in 1882 at Johns Hopkins as evidence that “a live frog can actually be boiled without a movement if the water is heated slowly enough; in one experiment the temperature was raised at a rate of 0.002°C. per second, and the frog was found dead at the end of 2½ hours without having moved.”
The story has been challenged by one or more recent experiments. However, in these experiments, the temperature was increased at a rate of 2°F. per minute (or 0.019°C. per second), which is almost 10 times faster than the rate of temperature increase in the 1882 experiments.
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Source : Wikipedia - boiling frog
The idea is to get all or most involved parties to the table and have them exchange opinions/ideas. This isn’t about who is right or who is wrong, it’s entertainment. The public, who will be watching this on the telly, will be able to make an informed decision afterwards. They will also become aware that things are not as simple as they seem, or maybe, in some cases, that they are.
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We have many TV programs in Holland which subscribe to this format, like Nova, Netwerk etc. and I sincerely believe it sows the seeds for a better future. Hence, it becomes the responsibilty of the mainstream media to “educate” the people this way, IMO. I’ve witnessed these types of programs in Germany, Belgium, possibly in Canada. But not in the UK or in America (where everything has to be quick, fast and sensational) although I could be wrong.
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I think there is great value in what I said earlier and sums it up quite nicely. “Use the information gathering process we see within prediction markets to tear down the walls from the outside”.