I fully appreciate the work that Emile and others have done but just because something hasn’t worked before doesn’t mean it can’t happen. [...] Sometimes ideas take time and a fresh perspective before they achieve their full potential. [...]
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My thoughts:
- The future is present today as a seed. If we examine today’s seed under a microscope, we can see part of the future. The fact is that the prices/probabilities from NewsFutures’ play-money prediction markets are NEVER quoted by journalists and bloggers. They quote only InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
- “Time” can change that, indeed, provided that HubDub multiplies volumes by a factor of one million —which is what I wish for them.
- I don’t see the “fresh perspective” that HubDub would be bringing to the table. HubDub resembles a lot to NewsFutures. (The differences in terms of market design, automated market maker, and breath of topics, are a minor.) HubDub is a generalist, play-money prediction exchange, just like NewsFutures is.
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Chris, I have a one link answer for you: http://thenotebook.honadvblogs.com/2008/07/24/hubdub/
@Nigel Eccles: Congrats, you made it in a blog that nobody reads.
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A Hawaii blog talking about a Hawaii contract on HubDub. Wouarf. Now, the questions are:
- Will this Hawaii blog feature some non-Hawaii prediction markets offered by HubDub?
- Will the non-Hawaii blogs feature the Hawaii prediction market offered by HubDub?
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My answer is “no” to both questions.
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I agree that the HSX made it, but they stated in 1996, and had the support of some TVs to build up their base.