http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/23/robin-hanson-cftc-2/ Prediction Markets For All Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:59:02 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/23/robin-hanson-cftc-2/#comment-20847 Jason Ruspini Thu, 24 Jul 2008 22:53:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7720#comment-20847 With political markets, I am much much more optimistic than "never".  With reasonable trading restrictions and other rules in place, there is little argument that political markets are not excluded commodities, and that some could not be self-certified. . The CFTC generally does not regulate against insider trading, as opposed to manipulation.  The insider trading rules Hedgestreet and I propose are mainly to conform to the definition of excluded commodity by avoiding outcome manipulation. CME argues that such rules are unnecessary, citing the role of the Fed in determining interest rate policy.  I tend to think that is a special case. With political markets, I am much much more optimistic than “never”.  With reasonable trading restrictions and other rules in place, there is little argument that political markets are not excluded commodities, and that some could not be self-certified.
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The CFTC generally does not regulate against insider trading, as opposed to manipulation.  The insider trading rules Hedgestreet and I propose are mainly to conform to the definition of excluded commodity by avoiding outcome manipulation. CME argues that such rules are unnecessary, citing the role of the Fed in determining interest rate policy.  I tend to think that is a special case.

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