InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) was so good that even a BetFair shareholder loved it.

Chris F. Masse July 17th, 2008

Sean Park (who invested in Betfair at inception):

[...] I was heartened to read John Delaney’s (InTrade CEO) contribution [...]. I would certainly have endorsed this contribution - well crafted, robust, articulate and (imo) stating the blindingly obvious [...].

Yes, his input was great, but, alas, it won’t win in the end.

The CFTC will probably rule out the “excluded commodities” way (against the will of HedgeStreet and the CME Group) in favor of the “exempt commodities” route (for a reason of convenience). In parallel (and maybe as a consequence of), the CFTC will probably direct those “event markets” to lightly-regulated, US-based, small prediction exchanges —with plenty of restrictions upon them. Those restrictions are what is still up in the air, in my assessment.

So, the picture does not look like the CFTC ruling will please InTrade CEO John Delaney —but if I’m wrong in the end, of course, I’ll be happy.

As for me, I’m intrigued by the contribution from “Crystal World Markets” - (PDF file). I will blog about it, at a later time, this Summer 2008.

Tags: CFTC, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evet derivatives, InTrade, John Delaney, laws, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Sean Park, traded bets

Analysis (Industry) , Exchanges & Markets , Regulations
Comments(1)

One Response to “InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) was so good that even a BetFair shareholder loved it.”

# Jason Ruspini on 18 Jul 2008 at 4:06 pm

You want to say “public interest exemption” instead of “exempt commodities”. The former is what the IEM and others argue for. Only I mentioned “exempt commodities” as part of a possibly more robust jurisdictional framework with respect to gaming laws, though election, tax and policy markets with the appropriate trading restrictions in place are clearly “excluded commodities”. I don’t see the CFTC ruling such markets out as excluded commodities even if none are launched anytime soon because of the overarching political environment.