Comments on: I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/vice-presidential-search-committee/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/vice-presidential-search-committee/#comment-20762 Chris F. Masse Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:57:28 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7521#comment-20762 @caveat bettor: Those campaign operatives are not in the loop when ti comes to who will be selected as VP candidate. That's my point. Nobody is in the loop. It's a secretive process. There are no advanced, primary indicators ---or when there are, it's false leads sent intentionally to fudge the reporters or some political opponents. - That said, I would take a good bet on Romney. :-D @caveat bettor: Those campaign operatives are not in the loop when ti comes to who will be selected as VP candidate. That’s my point. Nobody is in the loop. It’s a secretive process. There are no advanced, primary indicators —or when there are, it’s false leads sent intentionally to fudge the reporters or some political opponents.
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That said, I would take a good bet on Romney. :-D

]]> By: caveat bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/vice-presidential-search-committee/#comment-20761 caveat bettor Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:38:30 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7521#comment-20761 You could be right on this, but I do know of paid campaign operatives who trade Intrade contracts. Of course, sometimes they lose money, too. You could be right on this, but I do know of paid campaign operatives who trade Intrade contracts.

Of course, sometimes they lose money, too.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/vice-presidential-search-committee/#comment-20758 Chris F. Masse Fri, 18 Jul 2008 10:02:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7521#comment-20758 @caveat bettor: You're wrong. They won't trade. They will keep the secret till the last minute and, in the meantime, tell their aides to send out false rumors. @caveat bettor: You’re wrong. They won’t trade. They will keep the secret till the last minute and, in the meantime, tell their aides to send out false rumors.

]]> By: caveat bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/vice-presidential-search-committee/#comment-20757 caveat bettor Fri, 18 Jul 2008 09:39:56 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7521#comment-20757 What if Obama and McCain traded these markets? Wouldn't we all get better information? Isn't that the point? What if Obama and McCain traded these markets? Wouldn’t we all get better information? Isn’t that the point?

]]> By: Ed Murray http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/vice-presidential-search-committee/#comment-20612 Ed Murray Wed, 16 Jul 2008 21:03:47 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7521#comment-20612 Its an interesting debate. In theory the market is like Schrodiger's cat, with a real actual result probably already existing. It can still be a valid betting market though. - Just have to make sure that there are safeguards stopping Mr Obama & friends from lumping on a candidate in size, (or if it is not possible to safeguard it, then not offering the market). :-) Its an interesting debate. In theory the market is like Schrodiger’s cat, with a real actual result probably already existing. It can still be a valid betting market though.
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Just have to make sure that there are safeguards stopping Mr Obama & friends from lumping on a candidate in size, (or if it is not possible to safeguard it, then not offering the market). :-)

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