The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’s last month):
MS. BERNARD: Well, here’s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’s going to select to be his vice presidential running mate. You put out the search committee, probably because Hillary Clinton was all over his back last week –
DR. MCLAUGHLIN: So this is a smokescreen. This is a smokescreen.
MS. BERNARD: I don’t know if it’s a smokescreen, but I think he has a good idea who his vice presidential running mate is going to be. And the search committee is much ado about nothing.
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No good advanced, primary indicators.
Don’t trade on VP prediction markets.
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Its an interesting debate. In theory the market is like Schrodiger’s cat, with a real actual result probably already existing. It can still be a valid betting market though.
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Just have to make sure that there are safeguards stopping Mr Obama & friends from lumping on a candidate in size, (or if it is not possible to safeguard it, then not offering the market).
What if Obama and McCain traded these markets? Wouldn’t we all get better information? Isn’t that the point?
@caveat bettor: You’re wrong. They won’t trade. They will keep the secret till the last minute and, in the meantime, tell their aides to send out false rumors.
You could be right on this, but I do know of paid campaign operatives who trade Intrade contracts.
Of course, sometimes they lose money, too.
@caveat bettor: Those campaign operatives are not in the loop when ti comes to who will be selected as VP candidate. That’s my point. Nobody is in the loop. It’s a secretive process. There are no advanced, primary indicators —or when there are, it’s false leads sent intentionally to fudge the reporters or some political opponents.
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That said, I would take a good bet on Romney.