Comments on: “InTrade’s market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.” http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/intrade-dow-jones/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:00:36 -0400 hourly 1 By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/intrade-dow-jones/#comment-20559 Mike Linksvayer Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:02:58 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7515#comment-20559 How far out do DOW futures go and what have they done over this time period? Intrade has DOW contracts for EOY 2008, but then the new president won't even be in office. What is the stock market's preference for US govt debt?  I ask because http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/amm/implied.html clearly shows Intraders expect a bigger (~$500 billion) Increase in US Government debt between 30 Sep 2010 and 30 Sep 2011 with McCain in office. Also, I wonder how much of that difference in expected debt increase is explained by a large (~100k) difference in expected Number of US troops in Iraq on 30 June 2010. How far out do DOW futures go and what have they done over this time period? Intrade has DOW contracts for EOY 2008, but then the new president won’t even be in office.

What is the stock market’s preference for US govt debt?  I ask because http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/amm/implied.html clearly shows Intraders expect a bigger (~$500 billion) Increase in US Government debt between 30 Sep 2010 and 30 Sep 2011 with McCain in office.

Also, I wonder how much of that difference in expected debt increase is explained by a large (~100k) difference in expected Number of US troops in Iraq on 30 June 2010.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/intrade-dow-jones/#comment-20558 Chris F. Masse Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:59:32 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7515#comment-20558 @Panos Ipeirotis: :-D - By the way, Bary Ritholtz tells me that I should not confuse correlation with causality, that that the same factors that work to destroy the DOW are at work to help Obama. @Panos Ipeirotis: :-D
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By the way, Bary Ritholtz tells me that I should not confuse correlation with causality, that that the same factors that work to destroy the DOW are at work to help Obama.

]]> By: Panos Ipeirotis http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/intrade-dow-jones/#comment-20557 Panos Ipeirotis Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:39:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7515#comment-20557 Or people realize that Obama is a sure bet with a 50% return within 6 months. So, they move their funds out of the stock market and they buy Obama contracts instead. :-p Or people realize that Obama is a sure bet with a 50% return within 6 months. So, they move their funds out of the stock market and they buy Obama contracts instead. :-p

]]> By: Ed Murray http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/intrade-dow-jones/#comment-20556 Ed Murray Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:09:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7515#comment-20556 outstanding graph :-) , and fascinating. outstanding graph :-) , and fascinating.

]]> By: Byrne http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/07/15/intrade-dow-jones/#comment-20555 Byrne Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:29:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7515#comment-20555 I assume this is voters going for Obama when the economy looks bad, not traders shorting because Obama makes things bad. Which is fine for Obama opponents like me: I don't mind knowing that to the extent that Obama wants to win the presidency, he wants American investors to lose money. I assume this is voters going for Obama when the economy looks bad, not traders shorting because Obama makes things bad.

Which is fine for Obama opponents like me: I don’t mind knowing that to the extent that Obama wants to win the presidency, he wants American investors to lose money.

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