I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didnt I?

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The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that&#8217-s last month):

MS. BERNARD: Well, here&#8217-s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he&#8217-s going to select to be his vice presidential running mate. You put out the search committee, probably because Hillary Clinton was all over his back last week &#8211-

DR. MCLAUGHLIN: So this is a smokescreen. This is a smokescreen.

MS. BERNARD: I don&#8217-t know if it&#8217-s a smokescreen, but I think he has a good idea who his vice presidential running mate is going to be. And the search committee is much ado about nothing.

I told you so.

No good advanced, primary indicators.

Don&#8217-t trade on VP prediction markets.

10 thoughts on “I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didnt I?

  1. Ed Murray said:

    Its an interesting debate. In theory the market is like Schrodiger’s cat, with a real actual result probably already existing. It can still be a valid betting market though.

    Just have to make sure that there are safeguards stopping Mr Obama & friends from lumping on a candidate in size, (or if it is not possible to safeguard it, then not offering the market). :-)

  2. caveat bettor said:

    What if Obama and McCain traded these markets? Wouldn’t we all get better information? Isn’t that the point?

  3. Chris F. Masse said:

    @caveat bettor: You’re wrong. They won’t trade. They will keep the secret till the last minute and, in the meantime, tell their aides to send out false rumors.

  4. caveat bettor said:

    You could be right on this, but I do know of paid campaign operatives who trade Intrade contracts.

    Of course, sometimes they lose money, too.

  5. Chris F. Masse said:

    @caveat bettor: Those campaign operatives are not in the loop when ti comes to who will be selected as VP candidate. That’s my point. Nobody is in the loop. It’s a secretive process. There are no advanced, primary indicators —or when there are, it’s false leads sent intentionally to fudge the reporters or some political opponents.

    That said, I would take a good bet on Romney. :-D

  6. Ed Murray said:

    Its an interesting debate. In theory the market is like Schrodiger’s cat, with a real actual result probably already existing. It can still be a valid betting market though.

    Just have to make sure that there are safeguards stopping Mr Obama & friends from lumping on a candidate in size, (or if it is not possible to safeguard it, then not offering the market). :-)

  7. caveat bettor said:

    What if Obama and McCain traded these markets? Wouldn’t we all get better information? Isn’t that the point?

  8. Chris F. Masse said:

    @caveat bettor: You’re wrong. They won’t trade. They will keep the secret till the last minute and, in the meantime, tell their aides to send out false rumors.

  9. caveat bettor said:

    You could be right on this, but I do know of paid campaign operatives who trade Intrade contracts.

    Of course, sometimes they lose money, too.

  10. Chris F. Masse said:

    @caveat bettor: Those campaign operatives are not in the loop when ti comes to who will be selected as VP candidate. That’s my point. Nobody is in the loop. It’s a secretive process. There are no advanced, primary indicators —or when there are, it’s false leads sent intentionally to fudge the reporters or some political opponents.

    That said, I would take a good bet on Romney. :-D

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