http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/ Prediction Markets For All Fri, 21 Nov 2008 23:05:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19689 Chris F. Masse Sun, 29 Jun 2008 21:25:03 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19689 OK. OK.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19679 Jason Ruspini Sun, 29 Jun 2008 17:09:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19679 Being long doesn't require an attack for profits, just the increased perception of attack likelihood, or one of those spikes.  I was just suggesting a long position with a sell limit in the 40s. Being long doesn’t require an attack for profits, just the increased perception of attack likelihood, or one of those spikes.  I was just suggesting a long position with a sell limit in the 40s.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19654 Chris F. Masse Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:19:31 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19654 A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/2212934/Israel-has-a-year-to-stop-Iran-bomb%2C-warns-ex-spy.html A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new.....x-spy.html

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19643 Chris F. Masse Sun, 29 Jun 2008 09:52:32 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19643 There was little liquidity at the beginning of the life of this prediction market. The early prices should not be taken into analysis. There was little liquidity at the beginning of the life of this prediction market. The early prices should not be taken into analysis.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19635 Chris F. Masse Sun, 29 Jun 2008 09:22:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19635 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktBDj8VogPo The Iran situation comes up in the third part of the video. I don't like Max's analysis, though, but they show the chart. - Transcript: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/27/14931/5855/883/542189 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktBDj8VogPo
The Iran situation comes up in the third part of the video.
I don’t like Max’s analysis, though, but they show the chart.
-
Transcript:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/.....883/542189

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19631 Chris F. Masse Sun, 29 Jun 2008 08:59:31 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19631 @Jason Ruspini: Problem with being long is that the Israeli bombings could take place in early January, before Barack Obama takes office. @Jason Ruspini: Problem with being long is that the Israeli bombings could take place in early January, before Barack Obama takes office.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19622 PuncherMe Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:22:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19622 Hahaha, Voodoo analysis! Stats arent pragmatic Hahaha, Voodoo analysis! Stats arent pragmatic

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/28/voodoo-analysis-of-prediction-market-contracts/#comment-19620 Jason Ruspini Sat, 28 Jun 2008 22:22:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7371#comment-19620 I hope it is.  Fibonacci levels don't test well unless you overoptimize. I would still be long though if only to take advantage of one of those semi-manipulative spikes. (Probably caused by guys who are long crude and think it might be cute.) I hope it is.  Fibonacci levels don’t test well unless you overoptimize.
I would still be long though if only to take advantage of one of those semi-manipulative spikes. (Probably caused by guys who are long crude and think it might be cute.)

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