The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change). | Midas Oracle .ORG

The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).

Chris F. Masse June 25th, 2008

Last year, I said that the BetFair prediction markets on global warming would fail.

My prediction is that the first two BetFair Global Warming prediction markets (HSBC Investable Climate Change Index and ECX CFI Futures Contract) will fail miserably.

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They failed, indeed. Remain only those two prediction markets, with ultra light volumes: Highest and Lowest UK Temperature.

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As for the InTrade prediction markets on climate change (USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025), liquidity is more than thin.

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Now, ask yourself:

If BetFair and InTrade (which are for-profit prediction exchanges) encounter difficulties with those “socially valuable prediction markets”, why would not-for-profit prediction exchanges (like the Iowa Electronic Markets) be more successful at it?
Don’t you think that the American Enterprise Institute’s proposals (which would outlaw the for-profit prediction exchanges) are out of whack? I do. Let’s do something.

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Tags: BetFair, CFTC, climate change, event derivative markets, event derivatives, global warming, InTrade, laws, prediction markets, Regulations

Analysis (Industry) , Exchange / Market Liquidity , Exchanges & Markets , Market Prices & Probabilities , Regulations
Comments(5)

5 Responses to “The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).”

# The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ion 27 Jun 2008 at 4:25 am

[...] - The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best or…. [...]
# The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Inson 28 Jun 2008 at 6:40 am

[...] - The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best or…. [...]
# The CFTC is going to close the comments in 8 days. We have 8 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Inson 29 Jun 2008 at 5:37 am

[...] - The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best or…. [...]
# The CFTC is going to close the comments in 7 days. We have 7 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Inson 30 Jun 2008 at 3:54 am

[...] - The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best or…. [...]
# The CFTC is going to close the comments in 5 days. We have 5 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Inson 02 Jul 2008 at 9:16 pm

[...] - The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best or…. [...]

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